The Rockets are not favored! TA predicts a new season record of only 45 wins and 37 losses: ranked 8th in the West, needing to play in the play-in tournament.

On October 14th Beijing time, the well-known U.S. media The Athletic made predictions for the Western Conference standings in the upcoming season. The Rockets are underestimated, forecasted to finish with a 45-37 record, placing 8th in the West and requiring participation in the play-in games. The seven teams ahead of the Rockets and their records are: 1. Thunder (66 wins), 2. Clippers (54 wins), 3. Warriors (51 wins), 4. Nuggets (50 wins), 5. Timberwolves (49 wins), 6. Lakers (47 wins), 7. Spurs (46 wins).

TA’s analysis of the Rockets is as follows—

One of the most discussed topics during the offseason iswhether the Rockets are overly fixated on a "dual-center frontcourt lineup."It should be noted that this lineup brought the team many highlights during the 2025 playoffs. Certainly, acquiring Durant was the Rockets’ headline move this offseason, but as the new season begins, the bigger question is whether their "big-bodied" rotation will actually function effectively on the court.

The Rockets already have an All-Star center in Sengun and acquired 37-year-old Durant (currently best suited as a power forward) via trade. Despite this, the team also signed Adams (3 years, $39 million), Finnie-Smith (4 years, $54 million), extended Jabari Smith Jr. with a 5-year, $122 million contract, signed Capela (3 years, $21 million), and brought in Jeff Green as an "insurance option."

It’s also important to note that the Rockets have three "tough-style but inconsistent shooters" on the wings—Eason, Tate, and Okogie—who usually perform best when filling in as undersized power forwards. Additionally, the team’s most promising young player, Amen Thompson, spent most of last season as the starting power forward.

So, how should this lineup be configured? Especially after the team’s only reliable guard, VanVleet, suffered an ACL tear ruling him out for the season, making the problem even more complicated.

It is speculated that Amen Thompson will become crucial—regardless of which position he defends, he will basically operate the team as a "full-time point guard."VanVleet’s injury might also provide the Rockets an opportunity to experiment with lineup combinations that might otherwise never see playing time. Up front, it’s speculated the Rockets may pair Jabari Smith Jr. with Durant as a "twin tower" frontcourt, but neither is particularly adept at chasing opponents on the perimeter; moreover, Smith’s theoretical "spacing style" and "mismatch low-post scoring potential" are limited by his poor ball-handling skills.

On paper, aside from Amen Thompson, the Rockets only have two other guards—at least one of whom will need to take significant minutes in the second unit. This brings up another key question:Can Shepard handle a rotation role?

This 2024 third overall pick impressed during the 2024 summer league but saw almost no playing time last season, and showed more weaknesses in the 2025 Las Vegas Summer League. However, if his long-range shooting and steal instincts develop as expected, he could greatly solve the Rockets’ issues with "rotation continuity" and "floor spacing." If Shepard can’t perform, Aaron Holiday would only be able to provide "adequate rotation-level" play with no standout qualities.

Talent-wise, this Rockets team is a "beast"—especially if Durant can maintain All-Star form. Thompson, despite lacking shooting, can deliver stunning performances nightly with his extraordinary athleticism and defense; Sengun and Eason have become "troublemakers" for opponents and are still young with plenty of room to improve; if Shepard makes the rotation, the Rockets will have a "10-man deep" roster, with even their third center Capela stronger than many teams’ backup big men.

From a broader perspective, the Rockets are still in a "critical development phase," needing to make a series of "difficult decisions." Eason will soon face contract renewal talks, while Thompson will be eligible for a potential max extension in a year. Previously, the Rockets gave up on Whitmore due to "lack of playing time," and traded away Jalen Green in the Durant deal; if the team plans to keep Durant (who will be a free agent in 2026 but is likely to re-sign), another "roster reshaping" trade might be necessary. Jabari Smith’s contract, in some ways, resembles Jalen Green’s—his salary scale could make him a "salary-matching asset" next summer.

Another tough decision is whether to make another "betting-style" trade like the Durant acquisition. The Rockets’ asset reserves remain impressive: they hold two unprotected first-round picks from the Suns in 2027 and 2029 (possibly the best trade assets among contenders), plus a 2027 draft pick swap with the struggling Nets. If suitable players enter the trade market, the Rockets have the capacity to act—this represents their "highest ceiling" possibility for the new season. Some believe not extending Eason is to keep him as a "midseason tradeable contract," especially considering the Rockets currently have no expiring contracts available.

Even in the worst-case scenario, the Rockets’ strength won’t be weak. Although the team might stumble in solving lineup fit issues (especially early in the season and without VanVleet), with the combination of Thompson, Sengun, and Durant, the Rockets will still be a "must-watch team." Compared to some optimistic views, our expectations for this team are more cautious—They indeed "overcommitted" on frontcourt signings, resulting in a "guard shortage" after VanVleet’s injury.But it must be emphasized: if the Rockets can pull off another blockbuster trade, other teams will have to be very cautious.