How strong is the 2026 rookie class? NBA executives say: If Flagler enters the draft next year, he could fall to the 6th pick.

On November 15th Beijing time, noted writer Kevin O'Connor discussed the 2026 rookie class, highlighting that their talent level is historically significant. If this year’s number one pick Flagler declared for the draft next year, he could potentially fall to as low as the sixth pick. Here is O'Connor’s report—

In most drafts, being picked 5th, 6th, or 7th usually lacks appeal, but the 2026 draft is quite different; it could become one of the most historically significant drafts ever.

All eyes are on Kansas guard Peterson, BYU wing Dibansa, and Duke power forward Cam Bozell, but the value of this rookie class goes far beyond them. Players like North Carolina power forward Caleb Wilson, Tennessee wing Nate Ament, and Louisville guard Mikel Brown all have a shot at cracking the top three picks. This means at least six players in this class would be coveted as top-two or top-three picks in any other year. Undoubtedly, this is the strongest rookie class overall since the NBA adjusted the lottery odds in 2019.

We all know elite rookies can come from any draft position. Beyond the top two picks, mid-first round, late first round, and even second round selections have produced Hall of Famers. However, throughout basketball history, the highest probability of selecting top-tier players has always been with the early picks.

The college basketball season has just started, yet the top tier of this rookie class has already exceeded expectations. By next June’s draft, as players continue to develop, the overall quality could improve even more. A clearer comparison comes from several NBA executives who say that if Flagler hadn’t jumped early and instead entered the 2026 draft, he would likely be no higher than the 3rd pick, and might even fall to 5th or 6th. The exceptional talent in this class is exactly why some teams have started tanking aggressively early on.