ESPN Data Analysis: Is the Greatest MVP Race in History Unfolding? Four NBA Superstars Deliver Phenomenal Season Starts

As of November 26th Beijing time, more than a month into the NBA season, this year’s MVP competition could be the best in history. ESPN breaks down the outstanding season starts of four NBA superstars from a statistical viewpoint to determine who might become the 2025-26 regular season MVP.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic has secured the regular season MVP award three times and finished second twice over the last five NBA seasons. Thus, even in his highly acclaimed career, Jokic’s career-best start this 2025-26 season is truly remarkable.

In the first 17 games this season, Jokic is averaging 29.6 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 11.1 assists per game—ranking 6th in scoring, 2nd in rebounds, and leading the league in assists. His two-point shooting percentage is an impressive 70%, three-point accuracy is 43%, and he has recorded triple-doubles in over half of the games, guiding the Nuggets to a strong 13-4 record in the highly competitive Western Conference.

But Jokic is not the only shining star. This Nuggets interior leader is on track to break his own single-season Player Efficiency Rating (PER) record, while two other MVP winners—Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo and Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander—are also pushing the boundaries of this metric.According to Stathead data, as of this Tuesday Beijing time, among the 96 players in NBA history who have averaged at least 30 points per game in a single season, Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Giannis rank first, second, and fourth respectively in true shooting percentage. The third spot belongs to Golden State’s Stephen Curry during his 2015-16 season—the year he became the only unanimous MVP in league history.

As their remarkable seasons continue, let’s analyze the hot stats of Jokic, Giannis, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Lakers star Luka Doncic, and explore how these strong starts might impact the 2025-26 MVP race:

Jokic’s Dream Start

To better illustrate Jokic’s start, we introduce a metric designed to evaluate small sample performances: Game Score. This statistic condenses all aspects of a player’s single-game box score into one number, tracked since the 1983-84 season. It awards points for positive contributions (scoring, steals, assists) and subtracts for negatives (missed shots, turnovers). The score roughly aligns with points scored—above 30 is outstanding, above 20 excellent, and so forth.

This season, Jokic’s average Game Score of 31.8 over the first 17 games sets the highest mark in NBA history for that span. The previous record (30.5) was also held by Jokic from last season; before him, the record belonged to Michael Jordan in 1988-89.

Jokic’s 2023-24 season average Game Score ranks fifth on the historical leaderboard for the first 17 games. In other words, since Game Score tracking began, Jokic occupies three of the top five season starts.

One reason for Jokic’s incredible average Game Score is his exceptional efficiency—missed shots detract very little from his score. For example, his 70% two-point shooting tops the NBA historical record for players averaging at least 10 two-point attempts per game, previously held by Wilt Chamberlain’s 68% in 1966-67. (Notably, Jokic has two other seasons ranked in the top five on this list.)

Jokic’s fundamental stats also help him lead the Game Score charts. Averaging 29.6 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 11.1 assists means he performs at or above these levels in half of his games. For reference, only two Nuggets players in team history have ever recorded a single game with at least 30 points, 13 rebounds, and 11 assists: Fat Lever in 1988 and Alex English in 1982. Moreover, from January 2011 to February 2015, no NBA player achieved a 30+13+11 stat line in a single game.

It is worth noting that Jokic has never led the league in any major basic statistical category during a full season in his career. However, after the first month this season, he temporarily topped both the rebounds and assists leaderboards—putting him on track for another milestone.

No player in NBA history has ever led the league in average rebounds and assists in different seasons, let alone like Jokic this season, who is poised to lead both categories simultaneously.He has come close several times in recent seasons: finishing second in assists and third in rebounds in 2024-25, and ranking second in rebounds and third in assists in 2022-23.

Before Jokic, the last player to approach this feat was Wilt Chamberlain in 1967-68—he won the rebounding title but finished second in assists. (In fact, Chamberlain led the league in total assists that season by playing all 82 games, but Oscar Robertson had a higher assists per game average over 65 games.)

The Historic Rise of Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis, and Doncic

Although no other player has matched Jokic’s record-breaking pace this season, several other superstars are closely following.

2024-25 MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has posted a Game Score average of 28.1 over the first 18 games, ranking fifth all-time for that period; Giannis, before his groin injury, averaged 29.3 over 12 games, ranking fourth; and Luka Doncic’s Game Score over his first 12 games is also 28.1.

In short, the season openers of these four elite players rank among the best in over four decades of NBA history.

Among Jokic’s MVP rivals, Gilgeous-Alexander maintains the highest availability thanks to his health. The reigning MVP, Finals MVP, and scoring champion averages 32.2 points per game with a career-high efficiency rating and career-low turnover rate, leading the Thunder to a 17-1 record with a staggering +16.9 net point differential.

Despite a relatively light schedule with many early blowouts allowing Gilgeous-Alexander to rest in the fourth quarter, his scoring remains prolific: he ranks second in first-quarter points and first in both the second and third quarters, while his fourth-quarter scoring ranks 69th.

Meanwhile, although Giannis played only 13 minutes in his most recent game before exiting due to injury, lowering his averages, he still posts 31.2 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per game. This marks his third consecutive season averaging 30+ points, 10+ rebounds, and 6+ assists; besides this season’s Jokic, only three players in NBA history have achieved this (Robertson twice, Westbrook once).

Notably, Giannis continues to improve. His playmaking is advancing, and according to Cleaning the Glass, 73% of his shots this season have come at the rim—a career high—boosting his efficiency to its peak.

Finally, Doncic leads the league in scoring at 34.5 points per game. Despite a surprisingly low three-point shooting percentage of 31%, his two-point accuracy is a career-best 61%, and he leads the league in free throws made (9.9 per game) and attempts (12.5 per game). Combined with his steady averages of 8.9 assists and 8.8 rebounds, these numbers would have made him a clear MVP favorite in any era before the current ultra-efficient, high-output superstar competition.

What Does This MVP Race Mean?

With only a month into the season, these extreme statistics are likely to normalize as the season progresses. For instance, Jokic’s shooting percentages at the rim, floater range, and long two-point range are all significantly above his career averages, so maintaining a 70% two-point shooting rate long-term may be difficult. Also, with teammates Braun and Aaron Gordon sidelined for extended periods, his league-leading assist average could decline in the coming weeks.

As the Thunder face tougher opponents, Gilgeous-Alexander’s numbers may regress. The Thunder have faced the second-easiest defensive schedule so far this season. Giannis is expected to return from injury soon, but lingering effects from his groin issue could reduce his dominance inside, causing inconsistency. Additionally, with Austin Reaves emerging and LeBron James returning from injury, Doncic’s league-leading usage rate might decrease.

On the other hand, these four players with outstanding track records might sustain their current performance levels. Therefore, this MVP battle involving four stars experiencing historically dominant seasons remains highly uncertain.

After all, Jokic’s historic start doesn’t guarantee his fourth MVP trophy. He set a record-best season start last year but failed to win MVP; similarly, Michael Jordan in 1988-89 lost a close MVP vote to Magic Johnson.

This season’s race may be fiercely competitive. Based on the current trajectories of these four stars, the 2025-26 MVP contest could unfold as follows:

Three-time MVP Jokic: leading the league in rebounds and assists, scoring 30+ points per game, and guiding his team to 60+ wins;

One-time MVP Gilgeous-Alexander: efficiently scoring 32+ points per game, leading his team to a single-season win record—reminiscent of Curry’s unanimous MVP season;

Two-time MVP Giannis: surpassing his previous MVP seasons in both basic stats and efficiency;

All-Star guard Doncic: averaging nearly a 35-point triple-double performance.

The statistical advantages of these four players are partly due to the era they play in. This season, league pace and efficiency have increased, with teams averaging 117.1 points per game—up from 113.8 last season.Thus, the 2025-26 season is poised to be the highest-scoring since the 1960s—a period that produced memorable individual performances such as Robertson’s triple-double season and Chamberlain’s 50.4 points per game.

Additionally, today’s top offensive players are more inclined to dominate games comprehensively. Triple-doubles have never been more common, and since the mid-2010s, the number of 30+ point games per season has more than doubled.

Yet, even in this context, the quartet of Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis, and Doncic stands out, outpacing the rest of the league. While rising stars like Victor Wembanyama and established stars such as Anthony Edwards and Donovan Mitchell continue to secure All-NBA level status, as shown early in the season, there remains a clear divide between the NBA’s top four superstars and the rest of the players.