The likelihood of Giannis leaving has risen to 55%! Three preferred destination teams revealed: Experts analyze the trade difficulties

On January 29th Beijing time, reporter Shams stated that Giannis is prepared for a trade departure, with several teams presenting major offers to the Bucks, who are willing to listen to relevant proposals.

Foreign media Kaishi indicates that Giannis’s chance of remaining has fallen to 45%, implying his departure probability is now 55%, with the Knicks at 18%, the Heat at 16%, and the Warriors at 8%.

Additionally, reporter Henry Abbott revealed that sources told him Giannis has three preferred teams in mind.

“An insider shared with me,Giannis’s preferred list includes three teams: the Heat, the Timberwolves, and the Knicks,” Abbott said during a sports program on the New York Post.

“But I really can’t figure out what assets the Knicks could offer to meet the Bucks’ trade expectations. The Bucks definitely want young players and draft picks, yet the Knicks have almost no salary cap flexibility. I believe they can only offer Towns plus a low first-round pick as the core trade package, but such an offer makes no sense... Other teams can provide much more substantial assets.”

Salary cap expert Marks recently analyzed the trade assets of various teams for Giannis and assessed the difficulty of completing the trade. According to Marks, the Detroit Pistons have the most sufficient assets to complete the Giannis trade, but Giannis himself would definitely not want to go to Detroit. So what about the Heat, Timberwolves, and Knicks? Here is Marks’ analysis of these three teams—

Miami Heat

Trade difficulty: 7/10 (10 being the hardest)

The Heat hold salary cap space, young players, and possibly a highly valuable expiring contract for trade, but the team cannot offer a first-round pick for the next decade.

Miami can fully absorb Giannis’s contract without triggering the luxury tax hard cap limit. Contract-wise, the Heat have three players earning over $25 million annually, including former All-Stars Herro and Wiggins, whose contracts expire in 2027. Additionally, Miami holds Rozier’s $26.6 million expiring contract—this player was suspended and removed from the league last October.

Although Miami has young players like Veil and Harkless, in potential trade talks with the Bucks, the Heat’s only two available first-round picks (in 2030 and 2032) present a major obstacle.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Trade difficulty: 8/10

The Timberwolves currently have no available first-round picks and are in a tight salary cap situation. To acquire Giannis, team president Tim Connelly must devise clever maneuvers before the trade deadline.

Minnesota’s roster includes players like Randle, Reed, and McDaniels who could help the Bucks rebuild, but the team cannot offer a first-round pick as trade capital. One feasible approach for management is to trade players to a third party to obtain future first-round picks, then send those picks to the Bucks. Adding to the challenge, the Timberwolves are restricted by trade rules preventing them from taking on contracts larger than those they send out, which further complicates constructing the trade deal.

New York Knicks

Trade difficulty: 8/10

The Knicks’ only tradable first-round pick is unlikely to be available, so to bring in Giannis, they must offer a star player as the core asset.

Similar to the Timberwolves, the Knicks lack draft assets and have hit the luxury tax limit, facing many operational constraints. Their only first-round pick not restricted by swap clauses is the 2026 pick, which is top-eight protected and likely to remain with the Wizards this June.

Furthermore, due to exceeding the luxury tax threshold, the Knicks cannot take on contracts larger than those they trade away. This means the front office has only two options: either trade Karl-Anthony Towns straight up for Giannis or package Anunoby, Hart, and Bridges as trade assets. (Note: Bridges cannot be traded until after February 2.)