Detailed Analysis of Harden's Top Three Potential Destinations: Is Joining the Cavaliers a Better Shot at the Championship? Or Is a Return to the Rockets Timely?

On February 3rd Beijing time, ESPN reported that James Harden is collaborating with the Los Angeles Clippers to secure a trade before the deadline. Both sides are aligned in their objectives and are communicating with teams that have expressed interest. If all proceeds well, Harden will join a new team shortly.

From all perspectives, Harden’s performance this season continues to shine. He averages 25.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per game. He might be the most decorated active NBA player without an NBA championship ring. Nearing the end of his career, he clearly wants to join a team capable of contending for a title. Since Harden holds a trade veto, he can select his next destination. Noted media outlet CBS analyzed three possible destinations for Harden, detailed as follows—

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Clippers and Cavaliers have engaged in deep discussions about a trade involving Harden for Garland. On the surface, this trade seems almost meaningless for the Cavaliers. Harden is 10 years older than Garland; although the difference isn’t as extreme as when the Mavericks traded Doncic for the 6-years-older Anthony Davis, the gap remains significant.

However, the more you analyze, the more this trade reveals its rationale. Garland’s career has been plagued by injuries; last season was the first time he played 70 games, and he struggled in the playoffs due to a toe injury. This injury caused him to miss many games early this season, and even after returning, his performance has been below par. Since January 15th, Garland has not played. He still has two years remaining on his max contract and can trigger a contract extension this summer. If the Cavaliers doubt his health and form, trading him becomes inevitable.

Yet, most trade scenarios would weaken the team’s depth this season. The Hawks previously had to trade Trae Young to clear salary space. The Cavaliers aim to contend for the championship this season, but in today’s league, shorter guards are generally less favored. Therefore, if the Cavaliers want to get a relatively ideal return by trading Garland, the best option might be to acquire another guard.

Morant’s shooting ability is insufficient, making him an unsuitable candidate for the Cavaliers; LaMelo Ball was involved in trade rumors early in the season, but with the Hornets doing well now, they are unwilling to let him go. The Cavaliers have very limited choices, and Harden’s arrival fills this gap perfectly.

Although Harden is clearly not the Cavaliers’ long-term cornerstone, at least his immediate impact surpasses Garland’s current poor form this season.Across the league, there are very few players the Cavaliers can trade for Garland without weakening their current roster, and Harden is one of them. Of course, if the Cavaliers had started dealing Garland earlier, the situation might have been different.

But now, ideas like trading for Trey Murphy have long vanished, making Harden the Cavaliers’ best option. The Cavaliers could have traded Garland for draft picks, but that likely would have involved taking on an overpriced contract. This trade carries long-term risks but, in the short term, it keeps the Cavaliers in the championship hunt.

Considering Harden is from Los Angeles, will he be happy living in Cleveland? That’s hard to say. However, J.R. Smith’s example once caused a stir—he openly admitted,“Cleveland has no nightlife, no bright lights or glamour; all you can do is play video games, practice basketball, and compete.” Perhaps Harden can benefit from this. If his goal is to chase a championship, moving to the Eastern Conference usually makes that goal easier to achieve, especially since the Cavaliers’ roster already has championship potential.

Houston Rockets

This is not Harden’s first attempt to return to Houston; rumors of his comeback have surfaced multiple times. But recently, the Rockets used their salary space to sign VanVleet as their primary point guard, putting Harden in a difficult position. On the free-agent market, Harden failed to find a preferred destination and ultimately had to exercise his player option with the 76ers, which forced the team to trade him to the Clippers.

Times have changed, and the situation is now different. VanVleet performed well for the Rockets but suffered an ACL tear before the season. Recently, another key rotation player, Adams, was lost for the season due to an ankle injury, leaving the Rockets with $38 million of dead salary this year. VanVleet has trade veto power, but Los Angeles is attractive to him—not only does he have former teammate Leonard there, but the Clippers also have ample salary space and can offer him a long-term contract if interested. Harden’s salary this season is slightly above $39 million.The Rockets have struggled offensively in half-court sets, which is Harden’s specialty.Additionally, the Rockets have many defensive stalwarts who can support Harden defensively. He could even reunite with Durant—the two had a long partnership in Oklahoma City and briefly played together again in Brooklyn.

The Rockets missed a prime opportunity to bring Harden back; will their mindset change now?Harden’s playing style does not quite align with Udoka’s “defense-first” coaching philosophy, but if the team has a chance to contend for the title and few midseason upgrade options, they might be less picky. Will the Rockets be willing to offer valuable draft picks to make this trade happen? After all, the Clippers are no charity. Since the Cavaliers can use Garland as trade bait, the Rockets must provide assets of equal value to compete for Harden.

This trade faces many obstacles, but it’s reasonable to expect that if Harden can choose his next team, he would likely be eager to return to Houston. The assets the Rockets gained from trading Harden in 2021 have helped the team mature into a contender, and Harden’s return might come at just the right time to share in the team’s rebuilding success.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves neither have a player to trade one-for-one with the Clippers like the Cavaliers do, nor do they possess the emotional or logistical advantages of the Rockets. However,the Timberwolves have one of the most ambitious general managers in the league—Tim Connelly. As long as he wants to acquire Harden and Harden is willing to join, he will find a way to make the trade happen.

Since Mike Conley’s decline, the point guard position has been a weakness for the Timberwolves. The team considered players like Kobe White, who are relatively average, but Harden’s playmaking ability fits the team perfectly—he complements scorer Edwards and meshes well with the Timberwolves’ defensive stalwarts and athletic players. To balance salaries, the Timberwolves would need to trade one or two high-paid role players.The simplest plan would be to trade Randle, Dillon, plus a minimum salary player for Harden. This trade structure would push the Clippers’ roster to 16 players, forcing them to waive Paul, who would then need to find a new team for the rest of the season.

However, the biggest obstacle is that the Timberwolves are currently fully focused on pursuing Giannis. Compared to acquiring a 36-year-old regular-season MVP, the Timberwolves clearly won’t give up the chance to compete for the 31-year-old two-time regular-season MVP. Therefore, at present, the Timberwolves’ priority is not Harden. Whether this situation changes before the trade deadline remains to be seen.