A detailed look at LeBron James' four options this summer: most likely to return to the Cavaliers, with joining the Warriors less probable than retirement?

On February 18th Beijing time, The New York Post broke down LeBron James' four options for this summer, concluding that a comeback to the Cavaliers is the most likely, whereas joining the Warriors to play alongside Curry is the least likely, even less likely than retiring. The following is the ranking and analysis by probability—

1. LeBron returns to Cleveland

Last month, LeBron was moved to tears while watching a tribute video in Cleveland. This superstar rarely shows such emotion; the last times were in 2016 when he won the championship with the Cavaliers, and in 2023 when he became the NBA's all-time leading scorer.

If LeBron returns to Cleveland, it would bring a perfect conclusion to his illustrious career. In 2003, at 18 years old, he entered the league as the top draft pick, carrying the hopes of the entire city; it was here that he quickly became the face of the league. In the 2016 Finals, he led the Cavaliers to an unprecedented comeback from a 1-3 deficit against the Warriors, the only time in NBA Finals history such a turnaround has happened. Afterwards, he boldly declared himself the greatest player ever. Even today, despite his many accolades, he still calls himself “just a kid from Akron.” His heart has always been in Ohio.

Moreover, the Cavaliers have recently acquired Harden via trade, and added Schröder and Keon Ellis before the deadline, clearly signaling a championship push. Yesterday, LeBron praised the Cavaliers’ moves on his podcast "Mind the Game," saying: “They are truly going all out.”

LeBron’s timeline perfectly aligns with the Cavaliers’. The Lakers are building around Doncic for the future, while the Cavaliers want to win now. This sparks speculation: will LeBron return to where his dream began to team up with Mitchell for a championship run?

Recently, Mitchell publicly praised LeBron: “Playing in Cleveland makes you want to replicate what he achieved.” When asked if he wants to play alongside the superstar, Mitchell smiled: “That’s not up to me. I’m focused on my teammates in the locker room. The rest will happen naturally.”

2. LeBron stays with the Lakers

Before the season started, many believed LeBron would retire wearing the purple and gold. He loves Los Angeles deeply. Would he really make his daughter quit school and move the whole family? Or be separated from them for a year? He has spent eight consecutive seasons with the Lakers, the longest tenure of his career.

But now, the answer is less certain.

Last month, ESPN reported that Jeanie Buss has grievances with LeBron, including his “overinflated ego” and his and Klutch Sports’ control over the team, which evidently strains their relationship.

The Lakers’ core is now Doncic and his future. LeBron’s role is unclear, especially since the Lakers plan to offer Austin Reaves a big contract and aggressively pursue star players this summer (like Giannis). LeBron’s salary this season is $52.6 million, and he has historically opposed significant pay cuts.

Lakers’ basketball operations president Pelinka stated last September that he hopes LeBron retires as a Laker.

However, according to reports, Jeanie expressed doubts in a CNBC interview today about LeBron returning next season—whether by retiring or leaving. She said: “Never say never, but he hasn’t given any sign of coming back. He has the right to decide his career path, and he continues to amaze everyone.”

3. LeBron retires immediately

This is unlikely, as it’s hard to imagine LeBron skipping a farewell tour. He still plays at an elite level, averaging 22 points, shooting 50.2%, along with 5.8 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game. He remains capable of being the best player on any given night. LeBron has always said he will play until “the wheels completely fall off,” and that moment feels far away.

4. LeBron joins the Warriors

In 2022, LeBron mentioned on "The Shop" that if he could team up with any player, it would be Steph Curry. From 2015 to 2018, they met in the Finals four consecutive years, showing mutual respect. Now both nearing the end of their careers, a partnership would still be championship-caliber.

But will LeBron really join a new team in his final season, especially Curry’s team?

It seems highly unlikely.

That said, there is some mutual interest. Reports say the Warriors attempted to trade for LeBron before the February 2024 trade deadline but failed. Last month, when asked if he wanted to play with LeBron, Draymond Green said without hesitation: “I’ve always wanted to.”

However, Green added: “I don’t see a path for it to happen.”

What do you think LeBron will choose this summer? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.