How unbelievable was the Rockets' Game 3 loss? They squandered a 99.94% win probability, a disgrace comparable to the 2024 Knicks.

On April 25 Beijing time, the NBA playoffs continued. The Rockets narrowly lost Game 3 to the Lakers 108-112 in overtime, falling to 0-3 in the series and standing on the brink of elimination. In the final 30 seconds of the fourth quarter, the Rockets held a 6-point lead but inexplicably allowed the Lakers to score 6 consecutive points to force overtime, ultimately losing the game.

How outrageous is a playoff loss under such circumstances? ESPN data shows that over the past 29 years in the playoffs, teams leading by at least 6 points in the final 30 seconds of regulation had a record of 1713 wins and 1 loss, a win rate of 99.94%. After this game, the record is updated to 1713 wins and 2 losses. The Rockets became the second team to suffer this disgraceful defeat, with the first being the 2024 Knicks.

Looking back at the 2024 Knicks, in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference first round, they led the 76ers 96-90 with 28.9 seconds left. However, Maxey scored 7 points in 17 seconds, rallying with a 7-1 run to force overtime. Ultimately, in overtime, the Knicks lost 106-112 to the 76ers, becoming the first playoff team to suffer such a humiliating comeback.

Unthinkably, two years later, they found a companion in the Rockets. The Rockets led the Lakers 101-95 with a 6-point advantage in the final 30 seconds and also possessed the ball, seemingly on the verge of victory. However, Jabari Smith's pass was stolen by Smart, who then drew a foul on Tate and converted all three free throws, cutting the deficit to 3 points. Immediately afterward, Shepherd drove through a double-team but was stripped by James, who hit a game-tying three-pointer, sending the game into overtime. In overtime, the Rockets collapsed and ultimately lost 108-112, falling to 0-3 in the series.

Throughout NBA history, no team has ever completed a comeback after trailing 0-3. Since the NBA adopted the 16-team playoff format in 1984, all teams that achieved a 3-0 lead have ultimately advanced successfully. The Lakers' last playoff 3-0 lead dates back to 2010, when they swept the Jazz in the second round. Will they sweep the Rockets this time? The answer will be revealed next Monday.