The official website predicts that the Warriors will eliminate the Rockets 4-2! Amen's defense Curry becomes a highlight, Kuming aggravates the rotation?

On April 16, Beijing time, the Warriors defeated the Grizzlies in the play-offs and officially became the first-round opponent of the Rockets. The NBA's official website previews this set of matchups and predicts that the Warriors will eliminate the Rockets 4-2 to advance.

Key Points: Ball Battles

The Rockets are averaging 5.5 more shots per game (including shots and free throws) than their opponents. That's the largest gap in the league and the fifth-largest of any team in the last 25 seasons.

They rank 23rd in the league in effective shooting percentage, but the Rockets make up for it with more shots. They lead the league in offensive rebounding percentage by a huge margin. In the 29 seasons in which secondary offense scoring statistics are available, they have averaged 18.1 points per game for secondary offense scoring, the second-highest of any team.

The Warriors have struggled well for possession over the past few years, but have improved significantly this season. After acquiring Butler, they averaged 5.5 more shots per game than their opponents, the same percentage as the Rockets averaged all season. At the end of the season, the Rockets and Warriors were the only two teams to rank in the top 10 in the league in both offensive rebounding percentage and defensive rebounding percentage.

In the game where the Warriors won Houston by seven points before All-Star Weekend, the two teams took an equal number of shots; But in April, when the Rockets won by 10 points, the Rockets had the advantage (four fewer turnovers than the Warriors). The battle for the ball is likely to play a key role again in this series, and in this regard, the Rockets may be more eager to gain the upper hand in this regard.

Players to watch

Amen Thompson defends Curry. In that Rockets win on April 7, Curry scored just three points on 1-of-10 shooting. The main player who defended him was Thompson, who defended Curry for more time that night (4:13) than Curry had in the other two games against the Rockets combined (3:52).

With his excellent reach, athleticism and positive attitude, Thompson may be one of the most capable players in the league to follow Curry all over the court over the next two weeks. In the five-game regular-season series between the two sides, the Rockets had a 24.6-point better net win per 100 possessions than when the prospective Defensive Team of the Year was on the floor than when he wasn't on the floor (+10.1 when he wasn't on the floor and -14.5 when he wasn't). If Thompson can keep up with Curry, who is 15 years his senior, the pressure will be much less on the rest of the Rockets' defensive system, which ranks fifth in the league.

Of course, the Warriors have a solution. If Curry can't get rid of Thompson's defense, he can do more pick-and-rolls and create opportunities for his teammates to make layups and open shots.

Other concerns for both teams

Rockets

Shooting performance of a guard. Of the players who have made at least 200 three-pointers, only Dillon Brooks has shot or exceeded the league average for three-pointers (36 percent). Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet are averaging 8.1 and 7.7 three-point attempts per game, respectively, but they are shooting just 35 percent from three-point range combined.

The Rockets don't have to compete with their opponents on three-pointers; They have the second-best record in the league (16-13) in games where they trail in three-point scoring games. (The Golden State Warriors have a 7-16 record when they trail from three-point point range) but over the next two weeks, they need multiple players to have relatively good performances from beyond the three-point line.

Warriors

Depth of the squad. In Wednesday's playoff win over the Grizzlies, the Warriors fielded 10 players, and that didn't include Kuminga. The first-round series is a relatively loose schedule that allows players more time to rest, but the three best players on this team are all over 35 years old, and the Warriors can't afford to over-fatigue them in the first round if they're aiming to win a championship.

The Warriors' large number of potential rotation players also pose a number of problems. What playing time will a big man have? When the Rockets put Adams and Shin Kyung on the court at the same time, how should the Warriors' big men respond? Where does the team's offensive firepower come from when Curry isn't on the court? Is it Peyton II or Podemsky? Will Kuminga get a chance?

How Warriors head coach Kerr will deploy his roster is not only exciting, it's crucial.

Key data: 390-294

According to Second Spectrum's tracker, the Warriors made an average of 390 passes per 24 minutes of possession, the second-highest pass frequency in the league. This is the 10th consecutive season that they rank in the top two in the league for ball movement and fifth in the league for player distance traveled (11.9 miles per 24 minutes of possession).

The Rockets rank last in the league for ball movement, averaging just 294 passes per 24 minutes of possession and rank 25th for distance traveled by players (10.7 miles per 24 minutes of possession). The Golden State Warriors lead the league in assists (71.4 percent of their shots from the field), while the Houston Rockets (54.9 percent) rank at the bottom of the league by a wide margin.

So, this series will be a collision of two very different styles, with a huge difference in the fluidity of the offense.

Predict the outcome

The Warriors advanced 4-2. In this half of the Western Conference, all four teams could theoretically reach the division finals, and two of them will be extremely disappointed if they lose in the first round. Objectively speaking, the Rockets are the better side in this series, and they are ranked higher than the Warriors on both offensive and defensive ends.

But the Warriors have an experienced core roster, and they've been one of the best teams in the league on the road. The Rockets will make this series full of physical confrontations, and the spectacle may be a little ugly; In the last four meetings between the two sides, the two teams have scored just one point per round combined.

But in the end, the Golden State Warriors may have a slight edge of firepower on the offensive end.