With only 12 days left until the Play-In stage of the 2026 League of Legends Mid-Season Invitational, Riot Games has released the full rules for this year's MSI. During the Play-In phase, there will be no lottery; instead, the four squads will be automatically matched according to their First Stand results, following a 1v4 and 2v3 arrangement. The LEC First Stand came in second, the LCK took third, the LCS side finished third among the top six, and the LCP representative was the first to be eliminated, sitting at the bottom.

Thus, the Play-In bracket is set: in the upper half, KC faces DCG; in the lower half, T1 meets TL. The four teams will compete in a double-elimination BO5 format, with only one advancing to the main event. Among these four, T1's strength is head and shoulders above the rest. KC might pose a slight threat, but only a minor one. As long as T1 plays normally, an upset is highly unlikely—barring major mistakes, they should easily qualify for the knockout stage.

In the main event, the eight teams will need a draw. However, because the LPL's second seed is placed in the 4th seed pool, and due to the region avoidance rule, the matches between the 1st and 4th seed pools are predetermined without a draw. Let's look at the seed pools: First Stand champion BLG and runner-up G2 are in the 1st seed pool; HLE and LYON are in the 2nd seed pool; TSW and FURIA are in the 3rd seed pool.

TES and the Play-In qualifier are placed in the 4th seed pool. Like the Play-In stage, the knockout stage follows a 1v4 and 2v3 matchup. Since both the 1st and 4th seed pools contain LPL teams, BLG and TES automatically avoid each other. BLG will face the Play-In qualifier, while TES takes on G2. If T1 advances, BLG will play against T1. Both of these matchups are "grudge matches"—both LPL teams have lost to their opponents before.

The teams in the 2nd and 3rd seed pools will be determined by a draw. Honestly, HLE is in a really comfortable spot—their first match is practically a guaranteed win. Vietnam's TSE and Brazil's FURIA are widely considered the two weakest teams in this First Stand tournament. No matter which one they draw, HLE should easily secure the victory. Moreover, the bracket split is favorable for HLE. This First Stand also follows the region avoidance principle.

With BLG in the upper half facing T1, both TES and HLE will be placed in the lower half. In that half, only G2 and TES have some competitive strength. But compared to taking on BLG, HLE's path against the winner of that matchup is much easier—they should be able to reach the upper bracket final without too much trouble. BLG's opening match against T1 is tough: winning would basically lock them into the winners' final, but losing would send them into the losers' bracket struggle.

Finally, let's briefly discuss the outlook for both LPL teams in the knockout stage. Personally, I feel BLG has a slight edge against T1, because T1's current form isn't especially great. However, BLG's bot laner Viper has also been underperforming lately. If the bot lane can't gain an advantage, beating T1 might be difficult. Although ON is strong at roaming, compared to Keria he still falls a bit short. That said, BLG holds an advantage in the top and mid lanes.

Doran might get spun around by Bin, and as for Faker going up against knight—honestly, if Faker doesn't get crushed in lane, that's already a success. But T1 is a team that performs completely differently internationally compared to in the domestic league. If all their players pop off, anything could happen. As for TES versus G2, let's remain skeptical first—after all, TES has a history of making new history on the international stage. Every time fans trust them, they tend to deliver a major surprise.

Conclusion:

Compared to the regular season, T1's form in the playoffs has already recovered considerably. As last year's world champions, they deserve respect no matter what. BLG must not underestimate them this time. If they take half a month to study and prepare properly, their chances of winning are quite high. But if T1 somehow stumbles in the Play-In, then all of this is moot.

So, what do you think the odds are for TES versus G2?

Feel free to leave your comments and discuss!