Issue 25119 of the football betting pool: Villa secures their first win, Arsenal should be cautious, Heidenheim brings surprises, Barcelona remains steady.

1 BournemouthVSWolves

The two sides are roughly equal in strength. The home team’s defense was problematic in the first match, yet their attack remained potent. The away team suffered a 0-4 home defeat to Manchester City, revealing flaws in both defense and offense.

The data supports the home team, but this level of backing seems a bit too strong considering the teams’ comparable abilities.

First choice home win, second choice draw.

2 BrentfordVSVilla

The home team lost 1-3 to Nottingham in the first round. Overall, the stats were not bad, though they were slightly outplayed. The away team drew 0-0 with Newcastle, a strong side, which is acceptable given they were generally on the back foot, indicating solid defense.

The data favors the away team, though not strongly. Considering the league is just starting, stronger teams might have some advantage.

Away win.

3 BurnleyVSSunderland

Both teams are newly promoted, but their summer transfer window changes were very different. Their first matches showed a clear contrast: the home team lost 0-3 to Spurs, while the away team, with a nearly rebuilt squad, greatly improved and won 3-0 against the seasoned West Ham.

However, the data supports the home team, albeit weakly. The attacking strength difference seems large, which is somewhat strange, so caution is advised.

First pick home win, second pick away win.

4 ArsenalVSLeeds

The home team, strengthened during the summer, has almost no obvious weaknesses. They won 1-0 away against Manchester United in the first round, despite some pressure, their defense seems improved. The away team is newly promoted and won 1-0 against Everton, playing proactively and with renewed confidence.

The data strongly supports the home team, which aligns well with their strength. However, early in the season with fresh fitness, if the away side plays pragmatically, surprises cannot be ruled out.

First pick home win, second pick draw.

5 FreiburgVSAugsburg

The home team showed good form with a 2-0 German Cup win, although their warm-up games were average. The away team also won 2-0 in the German Cup and appeared to have better warm-up results than the home side.

The data supports the home team, with a fairly strong backing, perhaps a bit too much given the away team’s toughness.

First pick home win, second pick draw.

6 FrankfurtVSBremen

The home team has shown excellent form from warm-ups to the first German Cup match, while the away team’s condition is somewhat concerning. The data supports the home team, and considering recent form and relative strength, the home side should have no major issues in their first home game.

Home win.

7 HeidenheimVSWolfsburg

Warm-up results indicate the home team is clearly in better shape than the visitors, although the away team held psychological advantage over the last two seasons.

The data favors the away team, but the support is moderate relative to their strength. The home side’s attacking ability has been somewhat evident.

First pick away win, second pick home win.

8 LeverkusenVSHoffenheim

Under coach Seoane, the home team has become a Bundesliga powerhouse over the last two seasons. Despite losing key players, their attacking power remains strong in warm-ups and the German Cup, though partly due to weaker opponents. The away team also performed well in warm-ups and the German Cup, with significant offensive improvements.

The data strongly supports the home team, consistent with their strength. At their first home match, Leverkusen won’t let chances slip easily.

Home win.

9 Union BerlinVSStuttgart

Both teams disappointed last season, with the away team more affected by European competition fatigue. From warm-ups to the German Cup, the away team clearly looks stronger. The data favors the visitors, but the support is mild and not very favorable to them.

First pick draw, second pick away win.

10 St. PauliVSDortmund

There is a considerable strength gap between the two, but the home team’s attack left a strong impression last season. Warm-up games show defensive improvements for the home side, while the visitors’ offense has been unleashed.

The data supports the away team, though not overwhelmingly. Given the visitors’ slow start tendencies, caution is advised.

First pick away win, second pick draw.

11 SassuoloVSNapoli

The green and black team returns, but their overall strength has not significantly increased. Although the visitors’ warm-up results were poor, their strength remains intact.

The data strongly favors the away team. Historically, the home side has been the underdog.

Away win.

12 MallorcaVSCelta

Both teams lost their first matches: the home side 0-3 to Barcelona, the visitors 0-2 to Getafe, indicating issues in both offense and defense. The data shows no clear bias but slightly favors the away team. Ultimately, their strengths are quite close.

Draw.

13 Atletico MadridVSElche

In the first round, the home team surprisingly lost to Espanyol, raising concerns about their form. The away team, newly promoted, drew 1-1 against a strong Betis side and played impressively throughout, catching attention.

The data strongly supports the home team. Overheating support might not be good for a team in average form.

First pick home win, second pick draw.

14 LevanteVSBarcelona

Away win.