Issue 25123 of the soccer win-draw-loss lottery, Hamburg aims for their first Bundesliga victory, Lecce is not yet at their best, Hertha is struggling

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Enough rambling, sorry for the lengthy intro. Here is the main content.

1 Lecce CityVSBirmingham

After relegation, the home team’s overall squad is like an aircraft carrier in the Championship, with a clear goal of promotion. However, their first three games have been painful to watch: one win, one draw, one loss, with a fragile defense that is quite embarrassing.

The visitors have maintained good form in their three matches, with two wins and one draw, remaining unbeaten and possibly becoming this season’s dark horse.

The data shows no clear bias. If the home team continues in this state, promotion will be a luxury. Historically, the home team holds a psychological edge in their head-to-head clashes. Hopefully, they will rise bravely after shame.

First match home win, second match draw

2 HamburgVSSt. Pauli

The home team achieved promotion to the Bundesliga and won against the strong Borussia Mönchengladbach in the opening round. Although it was a tough match, it showed a brave defense.

The visitors adapted to the Bundesliga after a tough season, managing to survive relegation. In the first round at home, they drew against the Bundesliga powerhouse Dortmund and scored three goals, showing solid attacking ability.

The data shows no clear preference but slightly favors the home team. However, the home team’s attack might be a weak point in this game.

First match home win, second match away win

3 HerthaVSHoffenheim

The home team has two draws and one loss in their first three games, scoring 1 and conceding 2, indicating weak offense and poor performance. The visitors have two wins and one loss in their first three games; their loss was away. This team’s strong home and weak away form may become a flaw this season.

The data shows no clear bias but slightly favors the home team. Given their recent form, the home team may struggle to claim a victory.

First match draw, second match away win

4 NurembergVSPaderborn

The home team was relatively strong last season but surprisingly lost all three opening matches this season, scoring 1 and conceding 4, showing weak offense and defense. The visitors have one win, one draw, and one loss with a 4-4 goal record, showing some attack but defensive issues.

The data slightly supports the visitors, though the margin is small, it is still favorable for them.

First match away win, second match draw

5 CremoneseVSSassuolo

The home team is weaker than the visitors, but they stunned AC Milan in the first round, earning new respect. The visitors, newly promoted to Serie A, have not improved much overall and lost 0-2 to Napoli in their first match. Facing a strong opponent in the opener was unlucky.

The data favors the home team slightly, though the margin is small, with the strength difference still visible.

First match home win, second match away win

6 Lecce VS AC Milan

The home team drew with Genoa in the first round, while the visitors surprisingly lost to Cremonese, raising doubts. There is a significant gap between the two sides.

The data strongly supports the visitors. If they fail to beat the opponent again, it would be hard to justify.

Away win

7 ElcheVSLevante

The home team, after promotion to La Liga, has faced strong teams Betis and Atletico Madrid, drawing both 1-1, showing solid defense and offense.

The visitors lost both their matches, one to Barcelona (understandable) and the other to Alaves, which is not a strong team, indicating their form is not yet there.

The data supports the home team. Considering the recent form and strength of both sides, the home team has a higher chance to win.

Home win

8 ValenciaVSGetafe

The home team is much stronger overall but has not won in their two matches so far, drawing one and losing one against relatively weak opponents Real Sociedad and Osasuna, suggesting poor form.

The visitors won both their away matches against Celta and Sevilla, showing they are in good shape.

The data gives relatively strong support to the home team, but this is not well justified. From past seasons’ head-to-heads, the home team usually dominates. It’s a case of one style beating another. Still, the data is not very favorable for the home team.

First match home win, second match away win

9 LensVSBrest

Both teams are similarly matched. The home team has one win and one loss in two matches, scoring and conceding two goals each. The visitors have one draw and one loss; their away loss was to Toulouse, indicating weak away performance.

The data favors the home team slightly, which is reasonable given their relative strengths.

Home win

10 LavalVSClermont

The home team is weaker than the visitors. They have drawn all three of their matches, scoring 5 and conceding 5, showing strong offense but weak defense. The visitors have one win and two draws with a 4-3 goal record, similar attack but better defense.

The data gives slight support to the home team. Based on the three matches played, the home team can defend their ground.

First match draw, second match home win

11 Montpellier VS Amiens

The home team is actually one of the strongest in Ligue 2 but has only one win, one draw, and one loss, with a 3-3 goal record, which is not impressive. The visitors also have one win, one draw, and one loss, with 5-4 goals. Notably, the visitors won away at Saint-Étienne, showing good away capability.

First match home win, second match away win

12 Saint-ÉtienneVSAnnecy

The home team is stronger overall. After three matches, they have one win, one draw, and one loss, with 6 goals scored and 4 conceded. They notably won 4-0 away at Guingamp with a clean sheet, indicating improving form.

The visitors also have one win, one draw, and one loss with a 3-4 goal record, weaker attack than the home team but a recent narrow away win at Amiens shows decent form.

The data supports the home team fairly objectively, as the visitors are not in poor form but have weaker offense.

First match home win, second match draw

13 GroningenVSHeracles

Both sides are similarly matched. The home team has one win and two losses recently; the two losses were away to strong teams Eindhoven and Alkmaar.

The visitors have lost all three recent matches, conceding 10 and scoring only 1, a truly embarrassing record.

The data favors the home team, but given both teams’ recent form, this support is not very convincing. Fortunately, the home team’s home advantage might help.

Home win

14 Gil VicenteVSMoreirense

Both teams are close in strength. The home team has one win, one draw, and one loss; their home loss to Porto is understandable. They have scored and conceded 2 goals each, with weak offense but decent defense.

The visitors have won all three recent matches with a 5-1 goal record. Two opponents were weaker, but a home win against Guimaraes shows this team is in great form.

The data slightly supports the home team, but this small margin does not reflect the teams’ current states well.

First match home win, second match away win