Issue 25125 of the football victory lottery: Manchester City needs caution, a draw is preferable for Liverpool, Aston Villa escapes unscathed.

1 NottinghamVSWest Ham

The home team missed out on Champions League qualification last season and appears to be holding back this season. After two matches, they have one win and one draw: a 3-1 win against Brentford and a 1-1 away draw with Crystal Palace, with a goal tally of 4 scored and 2 conceded. Overall, their performance is good, but their opponents were relatively weak, reducing the quality of results.

The away team actually has a decent squad overall, but they have underperformed over the past two seasons. This season continues that trend with two losses in two rounds: a 0-3 home defeat to a promoted team and a 1-5 away loss to Chelsea. Without adjustments, their situation will become difficult.

The data heavily favors the home team, which is reasonable given both teams’ current form, but their overall strengths are quite similar. After two consecutive defeats, the away team is expected to be more alert.

First match home win, second match draw.

2Brighton VS Manchester City

The home team lacks the strong start they had last season. After two rounds, they have one draw and one loss: a 1-1 home draw against mid-level Fulham and a 0-2 away defeat to last season’s relegation struggler Everton, with a goal difference of 1/3, showing weaknesses in both offense and defense, though their season stats are not bad overall.

The away team has been declining since last season. Although summer transfers were made, the first two rounds show they haven’t met expectations: one win and one loss. They started with a 4-0 away win over Wolves, raising hopes of the dominant Manchester City’s return, but were then beaten 0-2 at home by a more efficient Tottenham. Goal difference 4/2.

The data slightly supports the away team, but the margin is small. They have high possession but inefficient attack and somewhat unstable defense, so caution is advised.

First match away win, second match home win.

3LiverpoolVSArsenal

This is a heavyweight match; with Manchester City’s decline, these two clubs are the strongest title contenders in the Premier League. Both made significant changes in the summer transfer window.

The home team won their first two games, scoring 7 and conceding 4, against Bournemouth and Newcastle, showing good form. The away team also won both games, with a goal difference of 6/0, beating Manchester United and Leeds.

The data favors the home team, with a considerable margin relative to the away team’s stature. The home team plays aggressively in attack but has defensive weaknesses, while the away team is comparatively more stable.

Draw.

4.Aston VillaVSCrystal Palace

The home team hasn’t shown the strength of the previous two seasons this year. After two rounds, they have one draw and one loss: a 0-0 home draw with Newcastle and a 0-1 away loss to a mid-level Brentford, which is somewhat surprising. Their goal difference is 0/1, showing a serious lack of offensive power, though their defense is decent.

The away team has become more pragmatic than last season, with no dramatic swings. After two rounds, they have two draws: 0-0 against Chelsea and 1-1 against in-form Nottingham. Their goal difference is 1/1, with a solid defense.

The data supports the home team strongly, but given both sides’ current form, it will be difficult for either to break through the other’s defense.

First match draw, second match home win.

5WolfsburgVSMainz

The home team’s overall strength is much higher than the away team’s. In the first round, they won 3-1 away at Heidenheim and dominated the match statistically.

The away team lost their first game 0-1 at home to promoted Cologne. Their attacking efficiency was low, and their forwards need improvement.

The data favors the home team, but the margin is not large considering both teams’ strength and form. The home team will try hard in their first home game.

Home win.

6DortmundVSUnion Berlin

The home team drew 3-3 away against the relatively weak St. Pauli in their first game. Statistics show both sides were evenly matched, indicating the home team still struggles to start strong, with weakening defense.

The away team won their first game 2-1 at home against a strong Stuttgart. After a tough season with multiple competitions, they have recovered. Statistics show the home team was under pressure but had a very resilient defense.

The data heavily favors the home team, seemingly disregarding the away team. As a working-class team, their spirit is different. Moreover, the away team showed stronger form in the first round.

First match home win, second match away win.

7CologneVSFreiburg

The promoted home team won their first match 1-0 away at Mainz. Statistics indicate effective counterattacks and solid defense with a clean sheet.

The away team lost 1-3 at home to Augsburg in their first match, which was unexpected. Statistics show they had some advantage but created few chances; their forwards were inefficient, and defense was weak.

The data shows no clear bias but slightly favors the home team, overlooking the fact that the away team is actually stronger.

First match draw, second match home win.

8TorinoVSFiorentina

The home team lost 0-5 away to Inter in their first match. Despite the strength gap, conceding five goals indicates problems in both attack and defense.

The away team drew 1-1 away against an average Libyan team in their first match, showing their form is not yet established. Statistics confirm the away team is much weaker.

The data supports the away team, but the margin is small and does not reflect their actual strength, indicating concerns about their form.

First match away win, second match draw.

9GenoaVSJuventus

There is a big gap in strength between the two teams. The home team drew 0-0 at home against the weak Lecce, while the away team won 2-0 at home against Parma, keeping a clean sheet and showing early good form.

The data favors the away team, which seems somewhat low given their current form and strength, but the away team is still expected to win again. The home team’s attack is very limited and unlikely to threaten the away side, though their defense may improve.

First match away win, second match draw.

10Inter MilanVSUdinese

The home team showed terrifying firepower in their first match, while the away team drew 1-1 against a mediocre Verona, showing issues in both attack and defense.

The data strongly supports the home team, with a 1.5 goal handicap reflecting high confidence from the public.

Home win.

11LazioVSVerona

The home team lost 0-2 at Como in their first round, a humiliating shutout showing poor form. The away team drew 1-1 away against Verona, which is unimpressive given the opponent’s weakness.

The data strongly supports the home team, as they need to deliver a good performance for their fans in the first home game.

Home win.

12Celta VigoVSVillarreal

The home team played three games, but one was postponed (against Betis on 8/28), so their fitness might be compromised. Their performance so far is average: two draws and one loss, with a goal difference of 2/4 and a tight defense.

The away team won both their two matches, with a goal difference of 7/0. Although their opponents were not strong, keeping a clean sheet deserves credit for their defense.

The data shows no clear bias but slightly favors the away team. Considering recent performances, the home team’s extra game, short rest, and weaker strength put them at a disadvantage. This data lacks solid support and suggests considerable uncertainty.

Away win.

13BetisVSBilbao

The home team is generally weaker than the away team and has played three matches, so they are at a fitness disadvantage. Their results include one win and two draws, showing decent form.

The away team has also performed well with two wins in two matches and a goal difference of 4/2.

The data supports the away team, but the margin is small despite their advantages in strength and fitness.

First match away win, second match draw.

14Rayo VallecanoVSBarcelona

The data strongly supports the away team, but the margin is not large, with a one to one-and-a-half goal handicap, making it somewhat uncertain.

First match away win, second match draw.