Issue 25126 Soccer Win-Loss Lottery, Spain Secure in World Cup Qualifiers, Germany Should Beware of Upset

1 BulgariaVSSpain

There is a clear disparity in strength, and the data gives absolute backing to the visiting side.

Away win

2 SlovakiaVSGermany

The strength difference is still very large, but although the data supports the away team, the intensity of that support is insufficient to fully represent the strength contrast between the two.

First away win, then draw

3 LuxembourgVS NorthMacedonia

The home team is slightly weaker than the visitors, but based on past meetings, the away side clearly has the upper hand. The data backs the visitors, but not strongly enough to guarantee a clear win.

First away win, then home win

4 Netherlands VS Poland

There is a marked strength difference; the data gives full support to the home team, and with home advantage, the scale naturally tips in their favor.

Home win

5 ArgentinaVSVenezuela

The home team currently ranks first and performs steadily at home, while the visitors are seventh with half the points and very poor away form.

The data fully supports the home side.

Home win

6 ColombiaVSBolivia

The teams differ greatly in strength, but the home side is only three points behind second place. The fight from second to sixth is very tight, and a single slip could ruin everything. The home team’s recent form is not great, with three draws losing momentum and needing to push harder. In their first encounter, the home team lost 0-1 away but dominated technically with 57 dangerous attacks to 26 and 65% possession to 35%. The issue lies in the forwards' lack of finishing despite Diaz’s presence, who is also fatigued.

The visitors are eighth, four points behind the home team, but their recent away World Cup qualifier performance is poor.

The data strongly supports the home team, but given their recent attacking form, caution is advised.

First home win, then draw

7 BrazilVSChile

The home team ranks third, tied with Ecuador. Although unbeaten in recent matches, too many draws have prevented them from pulling ahead.

The visitors are at the bottom, with no hope of World Cup qualification and very limited away strength.

The data gives strong support to the home side, who narrowly won 2-1 away; they should be even more motivated at home.

Home win

8 DenmarkVSScotland

The home team has stronger overall strength and a much higher ranking than the visitors.

However, recent performances suggest the home team may struggle to secure a solid win, as the visitors have beaten Greece and Poland in the UEFA Nations League.

The data gives considerable support to the home team, but the level of support downplays the visitors somewhat, which could be risky.

First home win, then away win

9 Faroe IslandsVSCroatia

Although key players of the visitors are aging, a weakened giant is still stronger than a team like Faroe Islands.

The data reflects this as well.

Away win

10 IcelandVSAzerbaijan

The home team ranks and performs better overall. Both sides have been weak from friendlies to Nations League. The data strongly supports the home team, which matches their relative strength, but current form may not guarantee a safe win.

First home win, then draw

11 ItalyVSEstonia

There is a large strength gap.

Home win

12 MontenegroVSCzech Republic

The home team is weaker overall and currently third in the group with a goal difference of 4/3, but the opponents are relatively weak and results lack weight.

The visitors lead the group with three wins and one loss in four matches. In their first leg, the home team lost 0-2 away. Technical stats show the visitors had the upper hand but also created chances.

The data supports the visitors, but the intensity is much less than in the first leg, as the home venue is not too poor.

First away win, then draw

13 SloveniaVSSweden

The home team ranks and performs worse overall, but recent Nations League and friendly form is quite good, especially defensively.

The visitors are also strong, with solid capabilities.

The data gives some support to the visitors, but given the strength and form of both sides, this level of support is somewhat weak and lacks backing.

First draw, then away win

14 SwitzerlandVSKosovo

There is a significant strength gap, but historically the home team has never had an advantage. The data gives strong support to Switzerland, who should justify their squad’s value by overcoming the opponent, though caution is still advised.

First home win, then draw