Why has Manchester City suddenly declined? Due to the team’s “natural disasters” and Guardiola’s “man-made troubles.”

Since Guardiola’s appointment on February 1, 2016, Manchester City has claimed six Premier League championships and a Champions League title, highlighted by the 2022-23 treble (Champions League, Premier League, FA Cup), and the historic four consecutive league titles from 2021 to 2024. Guardiola’s tenure has been full of honors, but starting last season, City suddenly faltered, especially struggling against counter-attacking teams. Last season they won no trophies, and after three rounds of this Premier League season, City has already lost twice, including a 1-2 defeat to Brighton, where they were overwhelmed by high pressing rather than counterattacks, leaving them with fewer points than Manchester United.

So the question arises,why has Guardiola seemingly lost his magic, and why has Manchester City suddenly faltered?The answer lies in two factors: the team’s “natural disasters” and Guardiola’s own “man-made mistakes.”

Reason one: the team’s “natural disasters.”Every championship team inevitably faces aging key players and the fatigue of transitioning between generations. The past Manchester City,boasted the Premier League’s top midfielder De Bruyne’s surgical through balls, Mahrez wearing gloves in winter, late-season attacking runs from Gündoğan, and the rapid recovery runs of fullback Walker,but now, with these influential players aging or leaving, City’s possession style has lost De Bruyne’s incisive passes, Mahrez’s winter magic, Gündoğan’s unstoppable late-season surges, and Walker’s fearless counterattack defense. Additionally, Ballon d’Or winner Rodri suffered a severe injury; although he has returned, it’s unlikely he will regain his peak form—an unfortunate reality after major injuries. It’s difficult for City to find replacements of similar caliber as these are world-class players, and even good substitutes require time to develop. Thus, the decline in City’s strength and immediate competitiveness is inevitable.

Reason two: Guardiola’s “man-made mistakes.”While aging and departing key players are unavoidable “natural disasters,” Guardiola’s overreliance on Haaland, releasing many suitable players, and failing to refresh the squad timely are “man-made errors.” In recent seasons, Guardiola has placed blind faith in Haaland, who receives the highest Premier League wages,earning as much as £525,000 per week,which surpasses even Salah’s £400,000 after his raise. Haaland is a highly overrated striker whose main attributes are his long legs and speed, making him ideal for counter-attacks and quick transitions. However, most of City’s matches are intense attacking battles, and Haaland lacks the ability to hold up the ball or deliver aerial lay-offs. This was evident in the 1-2 loss to Brighton, where City was dominated in their own half, unable to respond, and Haaland failed to win any aerial duels. Moreover, he cannot carry the ball forward effectively or provide top-class heading ability in tight attacks.

Guardiola’s faith in Haaland led to letting go of Argentina’s World Cup and Copa America-winning forward Alvarez. Haaland has never played in a European Championship and has failed to score in nine career finals, making him ineffective in big games—much like his Norwegian national teammate and Arsenal captain Ødegaard, who also disappears in crucial matches. Alvarez is an excellent number 9.5 who could replace both Haaland and De Bruyne’s roles or partner Haaland in a two-striker system to boost City’s attacking creativity. He also possesses outstanding free-kick and long-range shooting skills. Besides Alvarez, Guardiola also let go of another creative talent, Palmer.

Both Alvarez and Palmer were creative players who contributed to City’s attacking potential but were released due to Guardiola’s management decisions. Now, it’s difficult to find suitable replacements in the transfer market. Despite City’s declining results, the club continues to back Guardiola fully. In the recent winter and summer windows, City signed many players, including Gonzalez and Houssanov, who have barely been utilized and whose quality is questionable. Houssanov was supposed to be a speedy fullback in City’s system but was recklessly exposed when starting against Brighton, being easily exploited. Guardiola’s recent sales and purchases have been disastrous.

How to solve City’s decline? In my opinion, it’s currently unsolvable! Guardiola’s tactics revolve around possession, but Haaland must start despite lacking the skills for tight attacking battles. For example, City’s record signing Grealish managed only two Premier League assists in two seasons, but after moving to Everton this season, he has provided four assists in just two starts—double his previous rate.

Why is this? Because at City, Haaland occupies the striker role but is not a traditional poacher, leading to many attacking and wide players unable to make immediate passes. This may be part of Guardiola’s tactical approach, fearing losing possession and being countered, causing players to frequently pass backward. At Everton, Grealish can simply cross whenever he finds space on the wing, with teammates ready to finish centrally. Haaland doesn’t fit this style, making City’s possession tactics and Haaland incompatible. Without De Bruyne, a once-in-decades Premier League top passer, City’s current tactics and squad are contradictory. Also, without Walker, who prevented opponents’ counters, City is increasingly vulnerable to counterattacks, as shown by their losses to Al Hilal in the Club World Cup and Tottenham this Premier League season.

While having a striker who scores goals is good, if it comes at the cost of the whole team’s tactics, it’s counterproductive. Haaland still scores plenty for City but at the expense of the team’s tactical coherence and increased vulnerability to counterattacks. Similarly, Cristiano Ronaldo at Al Nassr scores frequently, but since his arrival, the club has struggled to win trophies, whereas before him, Al Nassr regularly won titles. Conversely, Benzema at Al-Ittihad integrates well with the team’s tactics and elevates overall strength rather than just piling up stats alone.

Guardiola’s overreliance on Haaland is the main trigger for City’s decline and currently has no remedy because City won’t sign a player demanding £525,000 weekly wages. In reality, Haaland’s ability and versatility are inferior to fellow Nordic striker Isak. Haaland has become City’s biggest problem, and this season’s results won’t improve much; maybe they can fight for fourth place but are no longer title contenders. Since his divorce, Guardiola has lost his tactical inventiveness and the courage to fully commit to Haaland. Therefore, the final chapter for Guardiola and City will likely be an amicable split, as Guardiola can no longer help the club, evident from his many helpless expressions on the sidelines. Haaland suits coaches who prefer simple, fast-paced styles, but not Guardiola’s possession football. Unless Haaland leaves, Guardiola’s City will not improve, as the Blues will never again have a player like De Bruyne.