Manchester City’s last-minute goalkeeper switch: Is Guardiola changing his strategy?

By Han Bing Signing a world-class goalkeeper such as Donnarumma is usually regarded as a club’s assertive move to show championship intent. Yet, Manchester City’s signing of the Italian keeper has stirred controversy, as Donnarumma’s foot skills are not especially strong, making him an unusual fit for Guardiola’s style. The difficulties City faced at the start of the season appear to demonstrate that Guardiola’s adjustment was compelled rather than preferred.

Guardiola’s past tactics allowed the possession-oriented Brazilian goalkeeper Ederson to fully utilize his excellent foot skills. But over the last two seasons, Ederson’s declining shot-stopping ability has gradually eroded Guardiola’s trust, forcing the Spanish coach to deploy backup goalkeeper Ortega last season. This summer, City re-signed English homegrown goalkeeper Trafford for £27 million, signaling that Ederson’s departure was only a matter of time. Unfortunately, Trafford’s sluggish start to the season has compelled Guardiola to urgently seek a top-class goalkeeper with more consistent performances. For a City side desperate to reduce goals conceded, this choice was clearly necessary, though not necessarily rational.

Rewinding to summer 2016, Guardiola’s first major change upon arrival was replacing Hart with Bravo, reflecting how much he values the goalkeeper position. Bravo, arriving from Barcelona, was preferred by Guardiola for his ball-playing ability over Hart, who was better at shot-stopping. However, Bravo’s poor saves eventually led to his abandonment. It wasn’t until summer 2017 that Brazilian goalkeeper Ederson joined from Benfica, becoming one of the solid foundations of the Manchester City dynasty as a keeper focused on ball control.

Although Ederson, now 32, is still in his prime, unfortunately, he is becoming the second Bravo. When City hit a low last season, Guardiola admitted the team needed to face more physical and aggressive matches. Bringing in Donnarumma while letting Ederson go signifies Guardiola’s compromise with reality. Today’s Manchester City needs a goalkeeper with strong shot-stopping skills who can stabilize the defense.

Last season in Ligue 1, Donnarumma averaged only 23.4 passes per game, compared to Liverpool’s Alisson’s 31.7. Donnarumma made 6 long passes per game, while his predecessor Ederson averaged 9.4. However, Donnarumma’s pass completion rate last season was 85.4%, slightly below Ederson but better than Ortega and Trafford. His strength lies in a 66.2% save success rate; in previous Ligue 1 seasons and the 2024/25 Champions League, he performed even better, saving over 70% of shots on goal. His penalty shootout record is also elite, saving nearly 25% of penalties faced.

Guardiola’s acceptance of Donnarumma over Ederson seems like a betrayal of his own principles. After all, Ederson exemplifies the “ball-playing goalkeeper,” providing 8 assists in 8 seasons at City, including 4 last season alone. Meanwhile, Donnarumma was discarded by Paris Saint-Germain’s coach Enrique, who also favors ball-playing keepers, opting instead for Lille’s 23-year-old goalkeeper Chevalier. Last season, Chevalier vastly outperformed Donnarumma in Ligue 1 for long passes (158 vs. 62) and forward passes (61 vs. 16).

Donnarumma’s foot skills are certainly not poor; his reluctance to initiate attacks from the back may stem from past serious mistakes. In the 2022 Champions League round of 16 second leg, he lost possession inside the box to Benzema, leading to PSG’s elimination. In November 2023, he also made a “self-assist” error passing that led to a goal by Monaco’s Takumi Minamino in Ligue 1. During his Milan days, in April 2017, he failed to control a back pass from Paletta, scoring an own goal, and in March 2019, his clearance hit De Vrij and ended up in his own net.

However, Donnarumma’s excellent positioning, outstanding reflexes, and big-match mentality inside the box may suit Manchester City better during this transitional phase when many newcomers lack confidence. In every Champions League season he has played, his goals conceded have been below the expected number based on shots faced. City’s more open style requires a goalkeeper with a high save percentage to compensate for missed chances upfront. Of course, Guardiola, who regards possession as football’s core belief, may eventually help Donnarumma overcome his hesitation to play out from the back.

Donnarumma has been demonstrating his confidence starting with his choice of shirt number. At Milan, he wore 99, his birth year, but Ligue 1 regulations prevented him from keeping it at PSG. At Manchester City, he chose 25, his birthday. Donnarumma’s City debut is likely to be a high-profile match: the Manchester derby on September 14 in the Premier League. Having already been wrong once in trusting Trafford, Guardiola and City cannot afford a second mistake in goalkeeper selection.