Issue 25135 of the football victory lottery: Crystal Palace is advancing strongly, Manchester United makes a dramatic comeback, Real Madrid needs to be cautious.

1 BrightonVSTottenham

The home team is currently in thirteenth place, much weaker than last year at this time. After four league matches, they have one win, one draw, and two losses; at home, one win and one draw; away, two losses. The team is showing a pattern of being strong at home but weak on the road, with goals for and against at 4/6. They conceded four goals in two away games and scored only one.

The away team ranks third, which is somewhat unexpected. After losing at home to Bournemouth in the third round, it seemed they might struggle, but they then won 3-0 away against West Ham. On the 17th, they won a Champions League match at home against Villarreal. With multiple competitions, player fitness is a concern. In four league matches, they have three wins and one loss, with goals scored/conceded at 8/1. Their defense has clearly improved this year, and their attack is strong.

The data slightly favors the home team, but not strongly. The away team, despite fatigue from continuous matches, should not be underestimated for their away performance.

First choice: home win, second choice: draw.

2 BurnleyVSNottingham

The home team ranks seventeenth, considerably weaker than the away side. After four league games, they have one win and three losses, with goals for and against at 4/7. However, their last match against Liverpool was not bad, showing solid offense and defense.

The away team is fifteenth. The departure of their coach has caused some instability. In four league matches, they have one win, one draw, and two losses. Among their four opponents, only Arsenal is strong; the others are average. Their goals for and against are 5/8. Last season’s good form hasn’t carried over, with two consecutive losses.

The data slightly supports the away team, but the home team’s counterattacks remain quite threatening.

First choice: away win, second choice: home win.

3 West HamVSCrystal Palace

The home team ranks eighteenth, showing poor performance with one win and three losses in four matches, scoring 4 and conceding 11 goals. Three of their four goals came in a single match, indicating weak offense and defense.

The away team is one I favor, possibly because of Van Zhiyi’s past involvement. This season, they have adopted a pragmatic style focusing on solid defense and leveraging strong forwards. After four matches, they have one win and three draws, remaining unbeaten and ranking ninth with goals for and against at 4/1, showing strong defense.

The data shows no clear bias but slightly favors the away team. The home team’s defense is very unstable and they tend to attack aggressively, leaving large spaces at the back, which will create many chances for Mateta.

Away win.

4 WolvesVSLeeds

The home team is currently at the bottom and likely to struggle this year. After four games, they have lost all matches with no draws, scoring 2 and conceding 9, showing poor offense and defense.

The away team is newly promoted, ranking sixteenth after four rounds with one win, one draw, and two losses. Their goals for and against are 1/6. Although they conceded five goals against Arsenal, they only conceded one in the other three matches, indicating a pragmatic approach this season.

The data shows no clear preference. The away team lacks offensive power but defends well, while the home team raises some concerns.

First choice: draw, second choice: home win.

5 Manchester UnitedVSChelsea

The home team has seen significant personnel changes this season but after four league games, the results have been mediocre: one win, one draw, and two losses, placing them fourteenth. Some say Manchester United’s season is already over, but it’s still early. Goals for and against are 4/7. They lost 3-0 away to Manchester City and 0-1 to Arsenal, struggling in tough matches.

The away team has two wins and two draws in four league games, remaining unbeaten but inconsistent, ranking fifth with goals for and against at 9/3. Their squad has no obvious weaknesses, but after playing a Champions League match against Bayern on the 18th, they face a fitness disadvantage.

The data does not show a clear bias but slightly favors the away team, which could be beneficial for the home side.

First choice: away win, second choice: home win.

6 FulhamVSBrentford

The home team ranks eleventh, with one win, two draws, and one loss in four league matches. Their only defeat was a 0-2 away loss to Chelsea. Overall, they have performed to expectations with a mature playing style. Goals for and against are 3/4.

The away team ranks twelfth, with one win, one draw, and two losses in four matches. Both losses were away, against Sunderland and Nottingham, teams of modest strength. This shows away games are a weakness for the Bees. Goals for and against are 5/7, with defense being a clear issue.

The data supports the home team, who will certainly leverage their home advantage this season.

Home win.

7 HoffenheimVSBayern Munich

The home team has two wins and one loss in three matches. They won 3-0 at home against Frankfurt but conceded goals in every game, showing defensive instability. Goals for and against are 7/4.

The away team strengthened their attack this season by signing Diaz, with goals for and against at 14/2. They are expected to dominate this year.

The data gives strong support to the away team, though the margin is not as large as expected.

First choice: away win, second choice: draw.

8 HamburgVSHeidenheim

The home team has one draw and two losses in three matches. Last round against Bayern was expected to be tough, but they were heavily defeated, with goals for and against at 0/7.

The away team has lost all three matches, with goals for and against at 1/7, equally disappointing.

The data supports the home team significantly. If they don’t want to win this match, it would suggest they aim to return to the second division.

First choice: home win, second choice: draw.

9 Werder BremenVSFreiburg

The home team has one win, one draw, and one loss in three matches, unbeaten in the last two games. They drew 3-3 at home with Leverkusen and won 4-0 away against Monchengladbach, showing improvement. Goals for and against are 8/7, with a decent attack but shaky defense.

The away team has one win and two losses in three matches. They recently won 3-1 at home against Stuttgart but lost 1-3 at home to Augsburg and 1-4 away to Cologne. Their goals for and against are 5/8, disappointing given the weak opponents.

The data shows no clear preference, but both teams are gradually improving. The home team’s home advantage is stronger than the away team’s road form.

Home win.

10 LeipzigVSCologne

The home team has two wins and one loss in three matches, winning the last two against Heidenheim and Mainz, who are not strong opponents. Goals for and against are 3/6, with the main damage from a 6-0 thrashing by Bayern in the first round.

The away team, a newly promoted side, surprisingly has two wins and one draw in three matches. They won 1-0 away at Mainz, 4-1 at home against Freiburg, and drew 3-3 away at Wolfsburg. Goals for and against are 8/4. They seem to have found their form after returning.

The data strongly supports the home team but somewhat overlooks the away team’s good start and strong attack.

First choice: home win, second choice: away win.

11 VeronaVSJuventus

The home team has two draws and one loss in three matches, with no wins. Goals for and against are 1/5, showing poor offense and defense, especially given their relatively weak opponents.

The away team played a Champions League match midweek, drawing 4-4 with Dortmund, which affects their fitness. However, they have won all three league matches, including a 4-3 home win over Inter Milan. Goals for and against are 7/3, with all three conceded goals coming against Inter. The team appears to be reinventing itself this season.

The data strongly favors the away team. Despite fitness concerns, I believe they can cope.

Away win.

12 UdineseVSAC Milan

The home team is performing well this year, with two wins and one draw in three matches, including a 2-1 away win over Inter Milan. Goals for and against are 4/2.

The away team has two wins and one loss in three matches. Their first match was an unexpected away loss to Cremonese, but the following two were normal. Goals for and against are 5/1.

The data supports the away team, but not strongly, as the home team’s defense remains solid.

First choice: draw, second choice: away win.

13 Real MadridVSEspanyol

The home team has won all four league matches, scoring 8 and conceding 2, showing excellent offense and defense. They played a Champions League match midweek and may be slightly fatigued, but their strong squad should prevent any impact.

The away team is somewhat surprising, with three wins and one draw in four matches, ranking third. Compared to last season’s struggles, they seem to have found an effective style. Their goals for and against are 8/5, with attacking ability comparable to the home team. Their opponents have all been strong, adding value to their performance.

The data strongly supports the home team, but the away team’s excellent attack should not be overlooked.

First choice: home win, second choice: draw.

14 VillarrealVSOsasuna

The home team played a Champions League match midweek, losing 0-1 away to Tottenham, which has affected their fitness. In the league, they have two wins, one draw, and one loss in four matches. Their recent 0-2 away loss to Atletico Madrid was reasonable. Overall, their performance is good, with goals for and against at 8/3. Their offense and defense remain solid, especially at home.

The away team has two wins and two losses in four matches. Both losses were away, 0-1 to Espanyol and Real Madrid, close matches. Their goals for and against are 3/2. Their offense is limited but defense is strong.

The data strongly favors the home team, perhaps overestimating them given the closeness in strength and ignoring the home team’s fatigue from multiple competitions.

First choice: home win, second choice: draw.