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Ahead of the Champions League showdown between Liverpool and Real Madrid, the BeSoccer supercomputer made an unexpected prediction: the home team at Anfield has a 41.6% chance of winning, while Real Madrid’s chance stands at only 35.1%.

The epic clash between Liverpool and Real Madrid will take place at 03:00 on November 5th (Vietnam time), during the 4th matchday of the 2025/26 Champions League qualifying round. This highly anticipated encounter features two of Europe’s top powers, Liverpool and Real Madrid, who together have won a total of 20 Champions League titles.

According to BeSoccer’s strength index analysis model, both teams currently share a strength score of 95 points. However, Liverpool’s home advantage gives them a slight edge in winning probability (41.6%) compared to Real Madrid’s 35.1%, with a 23.3% chance of a draw. The most likely predicted scoreline is 2-1 in favor of the “Reds,” with an 8.7% probability.

After a series of inconsistent performances, coach Arne Slot is helping Liverpool regain balance. Their 2-0 victory over Aston Villa last weekend boosted the team’s morale. Mohamed Salah continues to score, while Gravenberch and Gakpo are gradually establishing their roles in the high-press system—a playing style deeply rooted in the club’s DNA. Liverpool has won 2 and lost 1 in this season’s Champions League, including an impressive 5-1 win over Frankfurt.

On the other side, Xabi Alonso’s Real Madrid is currently in devastating form. Los Blancos have won all 3 group matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding only 2. In La Liga, they lead the standings, continuing a streak of 6 consecutive wins, including a 2-1 victory over Barcelona. The attacking trio of Mbappe, Vinicius, and Bellingham forms the most fearsome offense in Europe right now.

However, Real Madrid will suffer significant defensive losses as Carvajal, Rudiger, and Alaba are all injured. This forces coach Alonso to rotate the squad, possibly pulling Valverde back or giving chances to young players like Huijsen. The absence of key defensive pillars greatly reduces Real’s winning probability in BeSoccer’s calculation model.

BeSoccer also predicts Liverpool will average 1.68 goals per match, while Real Madrid will score around 1.53 goals. The Asian handicap favors Liverpool, who are rated higher by +0.5 goals.

Although Real has been a “nemesis” for Liverpool historically, winning 4 of the last 6 meetings, Anfield remains a challenging fortress. The Merseyside club currently holds a record 15 consecutive home wins in the Champions League—the best in the club’s history.

The upcoming match is not only a battle between two outstanding offenses but also a tactical duel between Arne Slot and Xabi Alonso—two coaches making waves in Europe. BeSoccer predicts a “do-or-die” contest showcasing speed, power, and resilience from these two of the continent’s most storied clubs.

If the supercomputer’s prediction comes true, Liverpool will continue to assert dominance over Real Madrid as they did last season, further cementing the reputation of “Anfield Fortress” — a place feared by teams all across Europe.

Schedule for the 4th matchday of the Champions League qualifying round

Standings Champions League qualifying round

Round of 16

Rijeka

Ludogorets

Din. Minsk

Main	TR	T	H	B	GF	GA
1 PSG	3	3	0	0	10	9
2 Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	10	9
3 Inter	3	3	0	0	9	9
4 Arsenal	3	3	0	0	8	9
5 Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	7	9
6 Dortmund	3	2	1	0	5	7
7 Manchester City	3	2	1	0	4	7
8 Newcastle	3	2	0	1	6	6
9 Barcelona	3	2	0	1	5	6
10 Liverpool	3	2	0	1	4	6
11 Chelsea	3	2	0	1	3	6
12 Sporting CP	3	2	0	1	3	6
13 Qarabag	3	2	0	1	1	6
14 Galatasaray	3	2	0	1	-1	6
15 Tottenham	3	1	2	0	1	5
16 PSV	3	1	1	1	2	4
17 Atalanta	3	1	1	1	-3	4
18 Marseille	3	1	0	2	2	3
19 Atl. Madrid	3	1	0	2	-1	3
20 Club Brugge KV	3	1	0	2	-2	3
21 Ath Bilbao	3	1	0	2	-3	3
22 Eintracht Frankfurt	3	1	0	2	-4	3
23 Napoli	3	1	0	2	-5	3
24 Royale Union SG	3	1	0	2	-6	3
25 Juventus	3	0	2	1	-1	2
26 Bodo/Glimt	3	0	2	1	-2	2
27 Monaco	3	0	2	1	-3	2
28 Slavia Prague	3	0	2	1	-3	2
29 Pafos	3	0	2	1	-4	2
30 Bayer Leverkusen	3	0	2	1	-5	2
31 Villarreal	3	0	1	2	-3	1
32 FC Copenhagen	3	0	1	2	-4	1
33 Olympiacos Piraeus	3	0	1	2	-7	1
34 Kairat Almaty	3	0	1	2	-8	1
35 Benfica	3	0	0	3	-5	0
36 Ajax	3	0	0	3	-10	0

Supercomputer predicts a surprising outcome for Liverpool vs Real Madrid match

03/11/2025 17:54:00 ceshi

Schedule for the 4th matchday of the Champions League qualifying round

Standings Champions League qualifying round

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