Issue 25172 football victory lottery, Arsenal defends home ground, Atletico Madrid is gaining momentum, Liverpool rises

1 Ulsan--Buriram

The two teams are quite evenly matched in strength.

The home team has two wins, one draw, and one loss in four matches, with the draw and loss occurring away, scoring 4 and conceding 3. They secured victories over Rongcheng and Samut Prakan at home, performing well.

The away team has two wins and two losses in four matches, with both defeats on the road, indicating weak away performance, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Their attacking ability is decent, but their defense is somewhat lacking.

The data shows no clear bias but gives some confidence to the away team, possibly based on their February match where the home team lost 1-2 away. Post-match statistics indicate the home team was at a disadvantage. Generally, Asian teams tend to perform better at home and struggle away.

First away win, then home win

2 Copenhagen--Arlam

The home team ranks fourth in the league but is in decline, with one draw and three losses in four European matches, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their offense and defense are poor, especially the 0-2 away loss to Qarabag, which was unexpected.

The away team leads the league, also with one draw and three losses in four European matches, scoring 2 and conceding 11. Their offense and defense are even worse. They only managed a draw against the weaker Pafos, with both goals scored away against Lisbon and Inter Milan, showing some away scoring ability.

The data strongly supports the home team, but this level of confidence seems excessive compared to both teams' strength and European form.

First draw, then home win

3 Pafos--Monaco

The home team is not very strong, with one win, two draws, and one loss in four European matches, performing reasonably well. However, their opponents are generally weak, such as Olympiakos and Arlam, who are similar in level. The 1-0 win over Villarreal was somewhat surprising; post-match data suggests luck played a bigger role than skill, with goals scored 2 and conceded 5.

The away team is significantly stronger, ranked eighth in the league with mediocre performance, having one win, two draws, and one loss in four European matches, scoring 4 and conceding 6.

The data favors the away team considerably, given their superior strength and decent attacking ability. They even scored twice against Manchester City.

Away win

4 Arsenal--Bayern

This is a clash between the champions of the English Premier League and the German Bundesliga, both performing strongly in their leagues and showing no signs of yielding in Europe.

The home team has won all four European matches, scoring 11 and conceding none. Remarkably, their defense has not conceded a single goal. Except for Atletico Madrid, their opponents were not very strong, but they scored four goals in the match against Atletico, which is terrifying.

The away team also has four consecutive European wins, scoring 14 and conceding 3. Their offense is extremely dangerous, but their defense is not impenetrable, conceding three goals in three different matches.

The data gives slight support to the home team, but the strength of the Premier League overall is considered higher than the Bundesliga.

First draw, then home win

5 Atletico Madrid--Inter Milan

The home team ranks fourth in the league and has improved steadily as the season progressed, overcoming early instability. In four European matches, they have two wins and two losses, with the wins at home against weaker opponents Frankfurt and San Siro, which are not very credible. They scored 10 and conceded 8, showing defensive issues.

The away team has dropped to fourth in the league, recently losing the local derby to AC Milan. They have won all four European matches, scoring 11 and conceding only 1, but their opponents were all relatively weak, benefiting from the schedule. They have yet to face a real challenge in Europe.

The data supports the home team modestly. Historically, the home side usually has the advantage, but this season Inter Milan is less stable than in previous years, which is a fact.

First home win, then draw

6 Frankfurt--Atalanta

The home team has climbed to sixth in the league, showing overall improvement. In four European matches, they have one win, one draw, and two losses, with a home record of one win and one loss, scoring 7 and conceding 11. They struggle against top teams but can still get results against similar-level sides, like a 5-1 win over Galatasaray and a 0-0 draw with Napoli. However, they lost heavily (by five goals) to Liverpool and Atletico Madrid.

The away team ranks thirteenth and has performed poorly this season, lacking motivation. In four European matches, they have two wins, one draw, and one loss. Although this looks decent, their opponents were mostly weak. They suffered a heavy 0-4 defeat to PSG, their only strong opponent.

The data shows no clear bias but gives some confidence to the away team. However, their league performance does not inspire much confidence. The home team usually plays well at home, and this match is expected to be no different.

First draw, then home win

7 Liverpool--Eindhoven

The home team has been struggling lately, with a fragile defense and a series of losses. Van Dijk is aging and often distracted defensively. The team’s priority now is to regain spirit. In four European matches, they have three wins and one loss, scoring 10 and conceding 4. The loss to Galatasaray was undeserved. The supposed turning point after beating Real Madrid did not materialize, as league form remains poor.

The away team leads their league, with one win, two draws, and one loss in four European matches. Both draws were away against weaker opponents, scoring 9 and conceding 7. They surprisingly scored six goals in a match against Napoli.

The data strongly supports the home team. This match is crucial for the home team to rebuild confidence. The away team is not strong, so a full effort for victory is expected.

Home win

8 Olympiakos--Real Madrid

The home team ranks first in their league but has no wins in four European matches, with two draws and two losses. At home, they have two draws and no wins or losses, scoring 2 and conceding 9, showing insufficient strength. Their two draws were against weak opponents.

The away team still leads their league but is being caught by Barcelona. Their recent form is poor and uninspired, with no wins in three recent matches across all competitions. In four European matches, they have three wins and one loss, losing recently to Liverpool, who were also in poor form. Rumors say the coach’s position is unstable.

The data favors the away team significantly, but considering both teams' strengths, this support is not fully justified. Confidence in the away team is somewhat limited.

First away win, then draw

9 Dortmund--Tottenham

The home team remains strong, with three wins and one loss in four European matches. They recently lost to the currently outstanding Bayern, scoring 14 and conceding 5. Their firepower remains strong.

The away team ranks ninth and has performed poorly. In their last match against Arsenal, they showed no signs of a strong team, which was disappointing. In four European matches, they have two wins and two draws, with no losses, but no away wins either, scoring 7 and conceding 2. Their opponents were not strong, so results lack credibility.

The data gives very strong support to the home team. Considering the current form of both teams, this match is likely to be a rout.

Home win

10 Lisbon--Brugge

The home team has two wins, one draw, and one loss in four European matches, performing quite well. They scored 8 and conceded 5, but their defense is weak as they concede in every match. However, their home form is relatively strong.

The away team has one win, one draw, and two losses in four European matches. Their win and draw were at home, including a 3-3 draw with Barcelona and a 4-1 win over Monaco, which is impressive. They lost both away matches, showing limited away capability, scoring 8 and conceding 10.

The data supports the home team strongly, but the away team also has some attacking threat that should not be overlooked.

First home win, then draw

11 Blackpool--Rangers

The home team ranks eighteenth and performs averagely. In their last six matches, they have four wins and two losses, with a home record of one win and two losses, scoring 9 and conceding 7, which is decent. Their three wins came away against strong opponents, showing quality. However, in their last six home matches, they have one win, one draw, and four losses, scoring 6 and conceding 11, showing poor home form and difficulty beating weaker teams at home.

The away team ranks fifteenth, with two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches. Away, they have one win, one draw, and one loss, scoring 6 and conceding 9, showing average form. In their last six away matches, they have three wins, two draws, and one loss, scoring 7 and conceding 4, showing fairly strong away ability.

The data gives slight support to the home team, which is reasonable based on recent performances, but considering home and away strengths, this support is not very convincing.

First home win, then away win

12 Sheffield United--Portsmouth

The home team ranks twenty-second and remains in the relegation zone, surprisingly. In their last six matches, they have two wins, one draw, and three losses. At home, they have no wins, one draw, and one loss, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Their attack is decent, but defense is weak. In their last six home matches, they have one win, one draw, and four losses, scoring 3 and conceding 7, explaining their low ranking.

The away team ranks nineteenth, with one win, one draw, and four losses in their last six matches. Away, they have no wins, no draws, and two losses, scoring 6 and conceding 11, performing poorly, even worse than the home team. In their last six away matches, they have no wins, three draws, and three losses, scoring 5 and conceding 11.

The data strongly supports the home team, but this level of confidence seems excessive compared to both teams' recent form and home/away strength.

First draw, then home win

13 Reks--Bristol

The home team ranks fourteenth, with three wins and three draws in their last six matches, undefeated. At home, they have three wins and no draws or losses, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Their offense is average, but defense is solid. In their last six home matches, they have three wins, two draws, and one loss, scoring 8 and conceding 7, remaining unbeaten in the last five home matches, showing reliable home strength.

The away team ranks fourth, maintaining good overall form. In their last six matches, they have three wins, one draw, and two losses. Away, they have no wins, one draw, and one loss, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Their attack is strong but defense average. In their last six away matches, they have two wins, three draws, and one loss, scoring 7 and conceding 7.

The data shows no clear bias but gives some confidence to the home team, possibly due to their good home record.

First home win, then away win

14 Sibro--Birmingham

The home team ranks seventeenth, with one win, one draw, and four losses in their last six matches. At home, they have one win and one draw without losses, scoring 5 and conceding 8, performing poorly. In their last six home matches, they have two wins, three draws, and one loss, scoring 6 and conceding 5, showing some home strength.

The away team ranks ninth, with four wins and two losses in their last six matches. Away, they have one win and two losses, scoring 14 and conceding 4, performing much better than the home team. In their last six away matches, they have one win, one draw, and four losses, scoring 3 and conceding 8. Though their away form seems weak, all four losses were against top-four teams, making their schedule tough.

The data shows no obvious bias, but overall, the away team’s form is decent.

First away win, then draw