Brazil Serie A: Cruzeiro vs Botafogo! With at least 12 players sidelined, heavy losses—does the away team still have a chance?

Today’s first match to discussBrazil Serie A: Cruzeiro vs Botafogo

Though the two sides are similarly renowned, their injury circumstances differ drastically.

If you look at Botafogo’s injury list, you’ll be somewhat stunned like me—they will be missing at least 12 players tonight!

Note, that’s the minimum! Not the full count!

Because some players were included in the squad despite injuries, so they might not be able to play.

For example, the young player Montoro, who was urgently added to the squad,is still suffering from a hip injury and pain.

As for Cruzeiro,only one key player is absent—Gabi, who is suspended; all others are fit.

Cruzeiro has always been Botafogo’s nemesis, having gone unbeaten in their last 14 encounters, including a recent away win against Botafogo a few months ago.

At that time, Botafogo’s lineup was much stronger than today’s, yet they still couldn’t win.

So, facing Cruzeiro’s fortress away today, is there still hope?

Botafogo’s only hope might lie in Cruzeiro’s motivation.

Looking at the current Serie A standings, we find:

First, Flamengo has already secured the championship, so Cruzeiro is out of the title race;

Second, Cruzeiro only needs one more point in the last two rounds to secure at least third place;

Third, Cruzeiro has already guaranteed a Copa Libertadores group stage spot by finishing in the top five, while Botafogo still has to fight for it;

I think for Cruzeiro,finishing third might satisfy them—they probably aren’t aiming for second place.

If they were chasing second, they wouldn’t have let their top scorer Jorge rest completely in the previous match against a weaker team like Ceara.

Note: They had no fitness issues in that game, having rested for a whole week—no physical constraints at all.

The reason they allowed Brazil Serie A’s top scorer to rest is that their main focus has shifted to the Brazilian Cup semifinals.

Why put so much emphasis on the Brazilian Cup?

Besides the honor,the prize money from the Brazilian Cup is extremely important to them.

According to Cruzeiro’s official report, they suffered a total loss of 170 million Brazilian Reais last year.

The main cause of the loss was excessive spending, such as being the second-highest net spender on transfers in Serie A, which their revenue cannot support.

So how much prize money does the Brazilian Cup winner receive?

Approximately 100 million Brazilian Reais!

What does that mean?

It’s one-third of their annual revenue! Sixty percent of their total losses! Almost like a big financial boost.

And there are only four matches left in the Brazilian Cup.

Last year, Cruzeiro played 65 matches and earned 307 million Brazilian Reais in total revenue.

Now, just the Brazilian Cup could bring in a third of that income! How could they not be eager?

In comparison, the Serie A ranking earnings are insignificant.

The chart below shows last year’s Serie A ranking revenues; even if Cruzeiro managed to climb to second place, they would only gain around 2 million more Reais, which is negligible compared to the Brazilian Cup.

Therefore, with no chance to win the league, prioritizing the Brazilian Cup while conserving energy is the right choice for Cruzeiro—continuing to push hard in the league would be a loss.

Meanwhile, Botafogo still has a chance to finish in the top five, which would grant direct entry to the Copa Libertadores group stage and avoid qualification rounds, so they still have motivation.

Also, Botafogo has no upcoming matches to rest for, so they don’t need to hold back.

Thus, in terms of motivation, Cruzeiro might be at a slight disadvantage.

Moreover, here’s a situation:Cruzeiro is a defensively strong team, having kept 17 clean sheets, the second most in Serie A.

So, how do they perform against other teams with high clean sheet rates?

Recently, matches against the first, fourth, and fifth placed teams all ended 0-0; they neither scored nor conceded.

Interestingly, Botafogo ranks third in clean sheets in Serie A.

With Cruzeiro only needing one more point to nearly secure third place, I’m a bit concerned they might play for a draw again.

So, although Botafogo’s injury situation is frightening, considering Cruzeiro may rest players for the cup, can Botafogo satisfy their fans? What do you think? I’m hoping they at least avoid defeat!

Alright, for today’s other matches, I will still send you written opinions tonight. If anything is unclear, feel free to ask me. “Watch football with understanding,” see you then!

If you like it, please give a follow and a like with a click!