Issue 26019 Football Win-Draw-Loss Fourteen Matches, UEFA Champions League Special, The knockout stage battle for the last sixteen, no way back

1. Arsenal VS Almaty

The home team has advanced to the last sixteen, but repeated defeats in the league have put their leading position in jeopardy, making squad rotation inevitable.

Yet the strength is evident, and the data fully backs them. The doubt lies in how much the home team wants to secure victory. Meanwhile, the visitor’s strength is not enough to expect much at this level, as their best result so far is a 0-0 draw at home against the similarly weak Pafoxa.

Home win

2. Atletico Madrid VS Bodø

Home win

3. Benfica VS Real Madrid

The data favors the away team, but the support is somewhat weak; still, the visitors have a stronger squad than the hosts.

First choice away win, second choice draw

4. Bilbao VS Lisbon

The home team’s last six matches show 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses; at home, 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 9 goals, unbeaten in the last three games, their form has improved.

The visitors’ last six matches are 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; away, 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, scoring 10 and conceding 8 goals, clearly stronger at home than away.

The data supports the home team, though not strongly; the home advantage will be significant.

Primary pick home win, secondary pick away win

5. Dortmund VS Inter Milan

The home team’s last six matches include 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; at home, 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, scoring 15 and conceding 11 goals, showing good attacking power but weaker defense. They are strong in home matches.

The visitors’ last six matches have 3 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses; away, 1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss, scoring 11 and conceding 7 goals. In the last three games, they lost to Atletico, Liverpool, and Arsenal, showing a decline in performance against tough opponents.

The data shows no clear bias, but the home team still has some strength on their ground. The visitors conceded six goals against strong teams.

First choice away win, second choice home win

6. Frankfurt VS Tottenham

The home team’s last six matches yielded 1 win, 1 draw, and 5 losses; at home, 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses, scoring 10 and conceding 19 goals, their defense is quite poor.

The visitors’ recent home matches show 4 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; away, 0 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, scoring 15 and conceding 7 goals. Mainly relying on home points, but their recent win over Dortmund has boosted their confidence.

The data supports the visitors, though their away form is not particularly strong.

Primary pick away win, secondary pick draw

7. Leverkusen VS Villarreal

The home team’s last six European matches are 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; at home, 0 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, scoring 8 and conceding 12 goals, showing inconsistency—capable of beating Man City but also losing to Olympiakos.

The visitors’ last six European matches are 0 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses; away, 0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 14 goals, the weakest side by far. It’s hard to imagine a top-four La Liga team performing this poorly.

The data strongly supports the home team, and based on Champions League performance, the hosts are clearly more confident.

Home win

8. Liverpool VS Karabakh

Winning this match will secure the home team’s place in the last sixteen. The recovered home side is quite formidable, with six matches yielding 4 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses; at home, 1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss, scoring 11 and conceding 6 goals.

The visitors have 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses in six matches; away, 0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, scoring 10 and conceding 13 goals. Their two wins and one loss all came at home; away form is much weaker.

The data heavily favors the home team, but don’t underestimate the visitors. From their draw with Chelsea and win over Frankfurt, they play very proactively rather than defensively.

Primary pick home win, secondary pick draw

9. Manchester City VS Galatasaray

In the last round, the home team unexpectedly lost to Bodø, failing to qualify early. They must win this match or face a risky situation, possibly even losing the playoff spot.

The data strongly supports the home team with a two-goal advantage, which is reasonable.

Home win

10. Monaco VS Juventus

The home team’s last six European matches are 2 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss; at home, 1 win, 2 draws, 0 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 10 goals. Except for Man City, other opponents are relatively average. The last three home matches were unbeaten, showing decent home strength.

The visitors’ last six European matches are 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; away, 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 10 and conceding 6 goals. Their away form is somewhat unstable.

The data supports the visitors moderately, with a draw/no bet option being a fair assessment.

Primary pick draw, secondary pick away win

11. Napoli VS Chelsea

The home team’s last six matches include 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; at home, 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 10 goals, an average performance. The home wins and draw came against relatively weak opponents, so the home side hasn’t been truly tested by strong teams.

The visitors’ last six matches show 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; away, 0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 13 and conceding 5 goals, overall quite good but poor away results with no wins in three away games.

The data shows no clear preference, but support for draw/no bet is already quite favorable for the home team.

Primary pick away win, secondary pick draw

12. Borussia Dortmund VS Newcastle

For the defending champions, only a win will suffice; relying on playoffs would be too uncertain.

The data strongly supports the home team, who perform better at home than the visitors do away. Their chances seem higher.

Home win

13. Eintracht VS Bayern

The visitors have already qualified for the last sixteen, while the hosts still have a slim chance. There is some doubt about the visitors’ motivation to win, as their squad is stretched across multiple competitions and they recently lost to Augsburg in the league.

The data still favors the visitors, but the support is not strong enough considering the teams’ strength; it seems the visitors are holding back. The hosts, despite overall poor form, have occasionally shown extraordinary performances like a 4-1 win over Liverpool and 6-2 over Napoli.

Primary pick away win, secondary pick home win

14. Barcelona VS Copenhagen

Home win