Champions League's "Two Extremes": Premier League Remains Dominant, Real Madrid and PSG Fall to Playoffs

Written by Han Bing On the night of January 28, the group stage matches of the 2025/26 Champions League season wrapped up. Premier League clubs continued their impressive form, with 5 of the 6 teams securing direct spots in the Round of 16. Arsenal led the pack undefeated with 8 wins, becoming the first team to complete the group stage without a loss since the competition's restructuring last season. Newcastle United, the only team not in the top 8, drew away against PSG and ranked 12th, but still qualified for the playoffs as seeded entrants.

Meanwhile, five teams from Europe's top four leagues—Napoli, Villarreal, Athletic Bilbao, Eintracht Frankfurt, and Marseille—were eliminated. This means that, following last season, the Premier League is once again poised to secure an additional Champions League spot next season due to its high overall points ranking. The competition for Premier League Champions League places will likely expand from four to five. If English clubs win the Champions League or Europa League, the Premier League could have up to seven teams participating in next season's Champions League!

In contrast, the big clubs from Europe’s top leagues have been somewhat disappointing. Defending champions PSG, last season’s finalists Inter Milan, title favorites Real Madrid, as well as Juventus and Atlético Madrid, all failed to reach the top 8. The draw for the Champions League playoff matches will take place in Switzerland at 7 PM Beijing time on January 30. Real Madrid will face either Mourinho’s Benfica or the surprise package Bodø/Glimt again, while Juventus and Atlético Madrid could meet Turkish giants Galatasaray.

Following last season’s Champions League expansion and format change, the Premier League earned an extra UEFA spot due to its strong overall performance. Tottenham, despite not qualifying through the league, entered via winning the Europa League, resulting in six Premier League teams competing in this season’s Champions League. Arsenal, leading the Premier League standings, also dominated the Champions League group stage by defeating Athletic Bilbao, Atlético Madrid, Barcelona, and Inter Milan, finishing with a perfect 8-0 record. Last season’s group stage leader was also a Premier League club, Liverpool, but their 7-1 record was slightly inferior to Arsenal’s this season.

Last season, Aston Villa’s 4-2 home win over underdogs Celtic in Round 8 allowed them to surpass Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, AC Milan, and Atalanta to sneak into the top 8. At that time, only three Premier League teams made the top 8. However, in this season’s Round 8, six Premier League teams repeated their strong form from Round 3 by achieving 5 wins and 1 draw unbeaten. Besides Arsenal’s perfect record, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City, and Newcastle all secured victories. Notably, Chelsea defeated former coach Conte’s Napoli away, eliminating the Serie A southern powerhouse and entering the top 8. Manchester City also capitalized on Real Madrid and PSG dropping points to climb into 8th place.

Although the Europa League group stage has one final match remaining, at least 8 of the 9 Premier League teams competing in Europe’s three major cups have qualified for the knockout rounds, with the possibility of all advancing. So far this season, Premier League clubs have amassed 19.43 points in European competitions, far ahead of the Bundesliga (14.642), La Liga (14.093), and Serie A (13.785). Moreover, the Bundesliga, La Liga, and Serie A already have teams eliminated, reducing their chances to earn points in knockouts. The Premier League’s consistent top-two ranking in European points over two seasons makes securing an extra Champions League spot almost certain.

After the group stage ended, the latest Champions League title odds also highlight the Premier League’s strength. Arsenal leads with odds of 4.5, followed by Bayern Munich at 5.5. Manchester City, Barcelona (8), PSG (9), Liverpool (11), and Real Madrid (13) form the second tier, with three Premier League teams among the top seven favorites, demonstrating their collective advantage.

Compared to the Premier League’s collective strength, the big clubs from Europe’s top leagues have generally underperformed. Last season’s top 8 entrants Barcelona and Inter Milan were disappointing; Barcelona narrowly reached the top 8 by defeating weak Copenhagen 4-1 at home in the final round, while Inter Milan won their first 4 matches but only one of the last 4, dropping from the top 8 to the playoff zone after a 2-0 away win against Dortmund.

Last season’s Champions League group stage top 8 featured teams from all five major leagues, but this season neither Serie A nor Ligue 1 has any team advancing. Besides Inter Milan falling to the playoffs, Juventus drew away with Monaco and Atalanta lost to Belgian underdogs Saint-Gilles, both damaging their chances of reaching the top 8. Napoli missed the playoffs after a 2-3 home defeat to Chelsea, with coach Conte missing the Champions League knockout rounds for the fourth time. Defending champions PSG drew at home with Newcastle United, losing their chance to enter the top 8.

Twelve teams were eliminated after the Champions League group stage, five of which came from Europe’s top four leagues. Villarreal exited early without a win (1 draw, 7 losses), Athletic Bilbao lost at home to Sporting Lisbon, failing to create a late playoff miracle. Marseille suffered a shocking 0-3 away defeat to Club Brugge, sending the latter into the playoffs. Real Madrid lost away to former coach Mourinho’s Benfica, with Raul, Asensio, and Rodrygo all receiving red cards, missing the first leg of the playoffs. Atlético Madrid failed to win in two consecutive rounds, losing 1-2 at home to Bodø/Glimt in the final match and missing the top 8.

The 8th round of the Champions League also produced some dark horses. Sporting Lisbon, whose coach Amorim was poached by Manchester United early last season, earned 9 points in the last 4 rounds with 3 wins and 1 loss, including back-to-back wins over PSG and Athletic Bilbao to reach the top 8. Young coach Borges, who was managing a Portuguese Primeira Liga team just three years ago, has become Portugal’s new dark horse manager. Benfica secured a 4-2 last-minute victory over Real Madrid thanks to goalkeeper Trubin’s assist for a header in the 98th minute, gaining 3 points and a +5 goal difference, edging Marseille to enter the playoffs.

The true dark horse is Norway’s Bodø/Glimt, who, based inside the Arctic Circle, upset Manchester City and Atlético Madrid for 6 points, sneaking into the playoffs after elimination. Azerbaijan’s Qarabağ defeated Benfica and Eintracht Frankfurt and drew with Chelsea in the first 4 rounds; despite a heavy 0-6 away loss to Liverpool in the final round, they became the first team from their country to advance from the Champions League group stage.