Supercomputer's surprising prediction for the Tottenham vs Man City match

The Opta supercomputer has offered its analysis and predictions for the clash between Tottenham and Man City in the 23rd round of the Premier League.

The main highlight of the 23rd Premier League round will be the showdown between Tottenham and Man City. Despite having home advantage, Tottenham is not favored to win against the Manchester side. This was clearly indicated by the Opta supercomputer’s result predictions.

Specifically, in 10,000 simulated scenarios before kickoff, Opta rates Man City slightly higher with a winning probability of 46.9%. Tottenham only has 28.7% chance of securing victory, while 24.4% of outcomes predict a draw between the two teams.

Nevertheless, Thomas Frank’s squad still gains some support from historical data.

According to Opta, Man City has faced difficulties when playing away at Tottenham’s stadium since it opened in 2019. In their first three visits for Champions League and Premier League matches, the Manchester team lost each time. They subsequently lost three more matches there, including two Premier League games and one Carabao Cup fixture.

The recent head-to-head balance has shifted. Pep Guardiola’s team won the last two away games against Tottenham in the Premier League. The last time Man City won three consecutive away matches against the “Spurs” in the top English league was over half a century ago, from February 1973 to August 1974.

However, Tottenham still prove to be a tough opponent. In the first leg this season at the Etihad in August, the London side caused an upset by defeating Man City, with Brennan Johnson and Joao Palhinha scoring late in the first half. If Tottenham manage to secure all three points in the upcoming rematch, they will complete their 10th Premier League double over Man City, a feat only Chelsea has achieved against the Manchester team so far.

Before the upcoming match, Tottenham is going through a worrying run. Although they qualified for the Champions League Round of 16, their Premier League form has been disappointing, with no wins since the start of 2026 (3 draws, 2 losses). This has left the “Spurs” in 14th place, 10 points behind the Champions League qualification zone.

This somewhat recalls their poor performance compared to last season, when under former coach Ange Postecoglou they finished 17th, despite later winning the Europa League.

Meanwhile, Man City also had a less impressive start domestically this year (3 draws, 1 loss, and 1 win). With Liverpool almost out of the title race, Pep Guardiola’s team faces a strong Arsenal side considered the main contender for the championship this season.

Currently, the Etihad hosts trail Arsenal by 7 points but have played one game fewer. Therefore, winning in London is seen as essential for Man City if they want to stay in the title race.

The match between Tottenham and Man City will kick off at 11:30 PM tonight (February 1).