After 9 teams had points deducted, analyzing the new landscape of the 2026 Chinese Super League

Reported by Chen Yong As many as 9 clubs had points deducted for the 2026 CSL season, causing a major shift in the league’s overall dynamics. Apart from affecting both the title contention and relegation battles, the teams without deductions have gained some breathing room. On another level, these penalties are not severe enough for teams to throw in the towel; whether it’s for winning the title or avoiding relegation, a turnaround is still very likely.

With the growth of young players and increased investment in foreign signings, Zhejiang is considered the most likely newcomer to the title contenders group this season. Previous forecasts predicted a “top six battle” in 2026, featuring Shanghai Port, Shanghai Shenhua, Chengdu Rongcheng, Beijing Guoan, Shandong Taishan, and Zhejiang.

After five teams were deducted points, Chengdu Rongcheng appears to have the strongest chance to win the title on paper. However, the club’s own situation in 2026 looks less promising for several reasons: Firstly, player changes — key defenders Timo and Yang Shuai, wing-back Goulfenkel, defensive midfielders Zhou Dingyang and Yan Dinghao have left, meaning the defense and midfield need rebuilding. Although foreign reinforcements like Rusa and Silva have been added, they do not fully compensate unless a major center-back signing occurs. Secondly, coaching changes — Xu Zhengyuan spent five years perfecting a three-center-back system, but new coach John Aloisi plans to return to a four-defender formation. Besides tactical adaptation challenges, the reshuffling of defenders may also disrupt Chengdu’s defensive stability.

Moreover, since Chengdu Rongcheng has not been penalized, they naturally become the main target for the other five top teams. From every angle, Chengdu has a chance to contend for the title next season, but the possibility of being surpassed by the other five strong teams remains significant.

Regarding the five teams with point deductions, Shanghai Shenhua’s outlook is undoubtedly bleak: they need to overcome a 4-point gap with Shandong Taishan and a 5-point deficit with Shanghai Port, Beijing Guoan, and Zhejiang, plus a 10-point difference with Chengdu Rongcheng. However, as Shanghai fans pointed out, since they were overtaken despite leading by 7 points in 2025, why shouldn’t they believe they can overturn a smaller 5-point gap with their main rivals now?

Shandong Taishan lost 6 league points but still holds a 4-point advantage over Shanghai Shenhua, though they trail Shanghai Port, Beijing Guoan, and Zhejiang by 1 point and Chengdu Rongcheng by 6 points. Overall, this places them at a disadvantage, but the gap is not large. Shandong’s goal for the new season remains to finish in the top three and challenge for first place, with no downgrade in ambition despite the point deduction.

Shanghai Port, Beijing Guoan, and Zhejiang trail Chengdu Rongcheng by 5 points but lead Shanghai Shenhua by 5 points and Shandong Taishan by 1 point. Objectively, their title chances have not changed significantly unless Chengdu Rongcheng achieves smooth team cohesion and outstanding performance.

In summary, Chengdu Rongcheng holds a notable advantage, but due to major internal changes, external expectations for their championship chances are not high. Shanghai Shenhua is the most affected, starting the season behind five competitors with a considerable point gap. The overall situations of Shanghai Port, Beijing Guoan, Shandong Taishan, and Zhejiang remain fundamentally unchanged.

The other four clubs, after having various points deducted, must fight to avoid relegation in the new season. For them, 2026 will be an extremely challenging campaign.

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger scored 44 points in the 2025 season, ranking sixth, but the club’s investment was not high. This achievement is close to their performance ceiling. After a 10-point deduction in 2026, their goal must shift to survival, with the key being to maintain the united fighting spirit shown in 2025.

Qingdao Hainiu lost 7 points, suffering the greatest impact among relegation-threatened teams, especially with a coaching change and the departure of five foreign players. Given their relatively low investment in the CSL, to avoid relegation, at least four foreign players need to consistently play well. In 2025, the low attendance of foreign players was a major factor in their relegation struggle.

After losing 5 and 6 points respectively, Wuhan Three Towns and Henan must also battle relegation. Compared to Henan, Wuhan’s difficult survival last season draws more attention. The good news is their club restructuring was completed, and the new season budget is expected to reach 150 million yuan. If fully realized, this funding could place them mid-table and greatly strengthen the squad, aiding their survival fight. The downside is a new coaching staff and significant player turnover, including losing four foreign players and key player Deng Hanwen. However, with sufficient funds, new foreign signings may boost the team’s strength.

Although Henan lost 6 points, their situation is somewhat optimistic due to an excellent performance after a coaching change in 2025: they earned just 7 points in the first 8 rounds but collected 30 points in the last 22 rounds, with coach Ramos winning official CSL best coach honors. The squad remains stable in 2026, so the 5-point deduction is not crippling.

Overall, Qingdao Hainiu suffers the most among the relegation teams, followed by Wuhan Three Towns, with Henan and Tianjin Jinmen Tiger also affected to some extent. These clubs will likely fight relegation in the lower half for a long time, though their situations are relatively optimistic.

Besides Chengdu Rongcheng, six other clubs without point deductions are Yunnan Yukun, Qingdao West Coast, Dalian Yingbo, Shenzhen New Pengcheng, Chongqing Tongliang Long, and Liaoning Tieren. Among them, two clubs each entered the CSL in 2024, 2025, and 2026, collectively forming the “new forces” of the Chinese Super League.

Qingdao West Coast and Shenzhen New Pengcheng both debuted in the CSL in 2024. Over the past two seasons, Qingdao West Coast has consistently been mid-table, while Shenzhen New Pengcheng has fought relegation. In 2026, with Shao Jiayi appointed as China’s national team coach, Zheng Zhi takes over as Qingdao’s head coach. Meanwhile, key defensive midfielder Xu Bin joined Wolves, and starting right-back Yang Xi may transfer, marking a period of adjustment that inevitably brings relegation risks. However, with several teams penalized, Qingdao West Coast has a good opportunity during this transition. Another positive is that Li Hao is likely to remain with the team.

Shenzhen New Pengcheng has struggled to avoid relegation for two consecutive seasons. For 2026, they increased recruitment efforts, retaining Kaltsov and Wesley and signing proven CSL players Ademi and Owusu. Unfortunately, their target foreign center-back Timo announced retirement, forcing them to find a new foreign center-back, whose quality will heavily influence the team’s results.

An interesting phenomenon in this CSL season is that many teams face difficulties recruiting quality center-backs, including Shandong Taishan, Chengdu Rongcheng, and Shenzhen New Pengcheng. The performance of foreign center-backs will largely determine these teams’ success. Among five foreign players, as long as three of the four attacking foreign players perform well, the team’s performance remains stable. However, if the center-back fails or lacks quality, the team will be at a great disadvantage.

Dalian Yingbo and Yunnan Yukun are the 2025 promoted teams. Generally, newly promoted teams perform well in their first CSL season but often struggle in the second, known as the “CSL sophomore curse.” However, with multiple teams penalized this season, the prospects for these “second-year” teams are viewed more positively, especially Dalian Yingbo, which benefits from a passionate fanbase and has strengthened its squad by signing Stanciu.

More attention should be paid to Yunnan Yukun, who have signed many domestic and foreign players. Defensive midfielder Cayo is valued at 2 million euros, and striker Cleber, though not highly priced, is an efficient scorer with 13 goals in 37 appearances in Spain’s second division in 2025. Together with Oscar, they form a formidable striking duo. Additionally, Yunnan Yukun brought in strong domestic players like Deng Hanwen, Xu Xin, Shi Ke, Huang Zichang, and Fernando. After nine clubs had points deducted, some fans jokingly say the 2026 title race might be between the southwestern rivals Chengdu Rongcheng and Yunnan Yukun.

The two promoted teams also have relatively relaxed situations: Liaoning Tieren made significant signings, retaining Mbemba, Bonbon Yiyu, and Felipe, while adding two high-value foreign players: Zeffinio worth 4.5 million euros and center-back Vajic at 2.5 million euros. On paper, Liaoning Tieren’s first CSL season looks promising. Chongqing Tongliang Long’s advantage lies in their strong youth squad, with foreign recruitment ongoing.

It should be noted that the CSL heavily relies on foreign players. Although there are outstanding young domestic talents, foreign signings will ultimately determine Chongqing Tongliang Long’s prospects. A comparative example is Qingdao West Coast, whose foreign players performed at an above-average CSL level in 2025 despite strong domestic players like Xu Bin, Yang Xi, and Li Hao. Both Liaoning Tieren and Chongqing Tongliang Long share another advantage: the 2026 transfer market will provide additional benefits.