Issue 26027 of the Football Fourteen matches, Arsenal faces a tough draw, Villa likely to stumble, Stuttgarter scores again

1. Arsenal vs Sunderland

The home side remains firmly at the top, with six recent matches yielding 3 victories, 2 draws, and 1 defeat; their home record is 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 13 goals and allowing 6, which is not entirely stable. In the last six home fixtures, they have 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 12 goals scored and 6 conceded.

The visitors rank eighth and have been a dark horse, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last six matches; away, they have no wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 8 goals. In their last six away games, they have 0 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, scoring 3 and conceding 11, showing average away performance and limited attacking power.

The data strongly supports the home team, but with some reservations; moreover, the home side played a cup match midweek, while the visitors had one more day of rest.

Primary pick: home win; secondary pick: draw

2. Bournemouth vs Villa

The home team is twelfth, with a recent record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss; at home, they have 2 wins, no draws, and 1 loss, scoring 13 and conceding 10. They only lost to Arsenal recently. In their last six home matches, they have 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, scoring 9 and conceding 9, showing some instability at home.

The visitors are third, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last six matches; away, they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 6 and conceding 7, with inconsistent performance. Their last six away games include 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 12 and conceding 10, losing only to Arsenal, but overall performing well away.

The data shows no clear favoritism, although it slightly boosts the visitors’ confidence, it is not enough to guarantee their victory.

Primary pick: away win; secondary pick: home win

3. Burnley vs West Ham

The home team is nineteenth, with no wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses in their last six matches; at home, they have no wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, scoring 6 and conceding 13, performing poorly. However, the three draws were valuable. In their last six home games, they have no wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 11, with weak defense.

The visitors are eighteenth and in danger, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses recently; away, they have 1 win, no draws, and 2 losses, scoring 10 and conceding 12, showing attacking ability but poor defense. In their last six away matches, they have 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses, scoring 6 and conceding 12, slightly worse than the home team’s home record.

The data favors the visitors but only slightly; the visitors must secure enough points against weaker teams to survive, or it will be difficult.

Pick: away win

4. Fulham vs Everton

The home team is ninth, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last six matches; at home, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and no losses, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Their two losses were away. In their last six home games, they have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 12 and conceding 11. They have been unbeaten in the last four home matches, with decent attack despite weak defense.

The visitors are tenth, with 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss recently; away, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and no losses, scoring 8 and conceding 7, showing good defense. In their last six away matches, they have 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, scoring 5 and conceding 3. They have remained unbeaten in the last four away games, with solid defense despite fewer goals.

The data slightly supports the home team, but breaking through the visitors’ defense will be challenging.

Primary pick: draw; secondary pick: home win

5. Wolves vs Chelsea

The home team is bottom, after a four-match unbeaten run, they returned to two consecutive losses, making their relegation battle tough. Their recent six matches show 1 win, 3 draws, and 2 losses; at home, they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 5 and conceding 6. In their last six home games, they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses, scoring 4 and conceding 9.

The visitors are fifth, just one step from the top four, with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss recently; away, they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 12 and conceding 8. The new coach has made a clear impact. In their last six away matches, they have 1 win, 3 draws, and 2 losses, scoring 8 and conceding 9.

The data supports the visitors moderately; the home team currently lacks momentum, while the visitors are confident.

Pick: away win

6. Newcastle vs Brentford

The home team played a cup match midweek, currently eleventh, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses recently; at home, they have 2 wins, no draws, and 1 loss, scoring 10 and conceding 10. They have not won in their last three games, showing form issues. In their last six home matches, they have 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, scoring 12 and conceding 10, relatively stable at home.

The visitors are seventh, rested, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses recently; away, they have 2 wins, no draws, and 1 loss, scoring 8 and conceding 6. In their last six away games, they have 3 wins, no draws, and 3 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Their attack is insufficient but defense is better than the home team’s.

The data slightly favors the home team but is not very friendly to them. Considering recent and home/away form, the home side faces some risks.

Primary pick: home win; secondary pick: away win

7. Wolfsburg vs Dortmund

The home team is fourteenth, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last six matches; at home, they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 8 and conceding 18, with very poor defense. In their last six home games, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, scoring 12 and conceding 13. Their style is open, scoring many goals but conceding many as well.

The visitors are second, with 5 wins and 1 draw in their last six matches; away, they have 1 win and 1 draw, no losses, scoring 17 and conceding 7, performing excellently. In their last six away matches, they have 3 wins and 3 draws, scoring 11 and conceding 6.

The data strongly supports the visitors, who favor the home team’s self-damaging style that costs them dearly.

Pick: away win

8. Heidenheim vs Hamburg

The home team is bottom, with no wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses in their last six matches; at home, they have no wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 6 and conceding 15, with poor offense and defense. In their last six home games, they have 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 14.

The visitors are thirteenth, with no wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses recently; away, they have no wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 9. Although their chance to win is low, they are tough opponents. In their last six away matches, they have no wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, scoring 4 and conceding 13, showing very poor away form.

The data shows no clear preference; although it gives some confidence to the visitors, the home team’s survival determination might produce a different kind of match.

Primary pick: away win; secondary pick: home win

9. St. Pauli vs Stuttgart

The home team is seventeenth, with no wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses in their last six matches; at home, they have no wins, 2 draws, and no losses, scoring 5 and conceding 8, with weak attack. In their last six home games, they have 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses, scoring 3 and conceding 10.

The visitors are fourth, with 4 wins and 2 draws in their last six matches; away, they have 2 wins and no draws or losses, scoring 12 and conceding 4. In their last six away matches, they have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 16 and conceding 9.

The data supports the visitors, though not strongly; the visitors are in good form and will aim to consolidate their precarious fourth position.

Pick: away win

10. Monchengladbach vs Leverkusen

The home team is twelfth, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last six matches; at home, they have 1 win, no draws, and 1 loss, scoring 6 and conceding 11, performing mediocrely. In their last six home games, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, scoring 8 and conceding 10, with major defensive issues.

The visitors are sixth, just one step from the top five, with 4 wins and 2 losses in their last six matches; away, they have 2 wins, no draws, and 1 loss, scoring 10 and conceding 7. In their last six away games, they have 3 wins, no draws, and 3 losses, scoring 9 and conceding 9, showing limited away strength.

The data slightly favors the visitors but with minimal strength; it is not particularly advantageous for them. Record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 10 goals for, 7 against.

Primary pick: away win; secondary pick: draw

11. Genoa vs Napoli

The home team is fourteenth, with 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last six matches; at home, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and no losses, scoring 10 and conceding 7, showing decent recent form. In their last six home games, they have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 10 and conceding 7, showing some home strength.

The visitors are third but in a vulnerable position and cannot afford mistakes; they have 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss recently; away, they have no wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 7 and conceding 8. In their last six away matches, they have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 6, showing some instability but relatively good defense.

The data supports the visitors slightly, but not strongly; based on their strength, they actually have more flexibility.

Primary pick: away win; secondary pick: draw

12. Fiorentina vs Torino

The home team remains in the relegation zone at eighteenth but is just one step from escaping; they have 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last six matches; at home, they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 8 and conceding 8. After a four-match unbeaten streak, they suffered two consecutive losses, losing the confidence they had built. In their last six home games, they have 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, scoring 10 and conceding 7, showing resilience against strong teams but weakness against weaker ones.

The visitors are thirteenth, with 2 wins and 4 losses in their last six matches; away, they have 1 win, no draws, and 2 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 12, performing poorly. In their last six away games, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 10, showing weak attack.

The data gives considerable support to the home team; despite recent back-to-back losses, escaping relegation is urgent, and there is a strong desire to win.

Pick: home win

13. Barcelona vs Mallorca

Pick: home win

14. Sevilla vs Girona

The home team is fifteenth, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last six matches; at home, they have 1 win, no draws, and 2 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 13, performing poorly. In their last six home games, they have 3 wins, no draws, and 3 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 7, showing average home form.

The visitors are twelfth, after four unbeaten matches, they lost away to Oviedo; their away record is 2 wins, no draws, and 1 loss, scoring 6 and conceding 6. In their last six away games, they have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 7, showing a tendency to perform poorly against weaker opponents.

The data supports the home team slightly; judging by recent form, the home team’s defense will be a major weakness.

Primary pick: home win; secondary pick: away win