Arsenal leads the Premier League by 4 points after finishing second for three consecutive seasons; in the last 12 matches of the past three seasons, Manchester City consistently earned more points than Arsenal.

Arsenal, coached by Arteta, has ended the previous three seasons as runners-up. The saying goes that failure leads to success, and having come second three seasons in a row, Arsenal is now intent on winning the Premier League this year. After the 26th round, with Manchester City’s 3-0 home win against Fulham and Arsenal’s 1-1 draw at Brentford, Arsenal’s lead in the league shrank from 6 points to 4, bringing the title race back into question.

There are 12 rounds left in this Premier League season, including a direct clash between the top two teams, with Arsenal visiting Manchester City. Comparing the last 12 rounds of the previous three Premier League seasons, Manchester City has always accumulated more points than Arsenal, which is the main reason Arsenal finished second three times in a row.

In the last three seasons, the points earned by Arsenal and Manchester City in the final 12 Premier League matches are as follows:

• In the 2022-23 season, Arsenal earned 21 points, while Manchester City collected 31 points.
• In the 2023-24 season, Arsenal gained 31 points, with Manchester City just ahead at 32 points.
• In the 2024-25 season, Arsenal secured 21 points, whereas Manchester City achieved 27 points.

In my personal view, Arsenal’s biggest opponent is themselves. During the final sprint, Manchester City will definitely have more experience and confidence, while Arsenal is more likely to falter. However, Manchester City has also shown some instability this season. Fortunately, their timely reinforcements, signing Semenyo and Guijian, have been crucial. The real title race for Premier League teams begins with the Champions League knockout stages. It will depend on how Arteta and Guardiola, as mentor and protégé, manage their decisions and squad rotations. If a team fails to rotate properly while competing on two fronts, they are more likely to lose the Premier League title.