After Arsenal dropped points in a 2-2 draw with Wolves, the latest Premier League odds still underestimate Manchester City, giving them less than a 20% chance.

Because of the League Cup final, the 31st round kicked off early with a clash at the bottom of the table where second-to-last Wolves hosted the top team Arsenal. The outcome? A major shock as Wolves scored a stoppage-time goal to secure a 2-2 draw. In other words, Arsenal faltered again in their title chase, now leading second-place Manchester City by only 5 points with one head-to-head match remaining, where City will host Arsenal. This means Manchester City has regained the upper hand in the Premier League title race. This season’s title fight is essentially a battle between mentor and protégé.

Following Wolves’ 2-2 draw with Arsenal, the data firm Opta updated its Premier League title probabilities using its supercomputer. The latest forecast shows Arsenal’s chances have dropped from over 90% in early February to 79.69%, a decline of ten percentage points. However, fans believe Opta’s model still underrates Manchester City, as City’s title probability after Arsenal’s draw with Wolves stands at just 17.26%, under 20%.

The current Premier League table shows Arsenal with 58 points from 27 games, and Manchester City with 53 points from 26 matches. This weekend features the North London derby, with Spurs having just changed managers. This game is crucial for Arsenal; another slip-up could shatter the squad’s belief in winning the title. After facing Spurs, Arsenal will then confront Chelsea next weekend in back-to-back big six clashes. Arteta must summon all his energy because historically, Manchester City has been stronger than Arsenal in the latter stages of the season.