Supercomputer predicts surprising outcome for Everton vs MU match

The Opta supercomputer evaluates the Everton vs Manchester United game in the 27th round of the Premier League as having a very tight probability, even though the Red Devils continue their remarkable unbeaten run.

Premier League Round 27 will conclude with the clash between Everton and Manchester United, a fixture regarded by analysts as one of the most unpredictable matchups. According to Opta's simulation, Everton has a 37.1% chance of winning, slightly higher than the visitors' 36.6%. The draw probability stands at 26.3%, making it one of the rounds most likely to end without a winner.

However, in terms of form, Manchester United is showing notable consistency. The Red Devils are the only team in the Premier League yet to lose in 2026 and have earned the most points during this period with 15. Since Michael Carrick took over coaching duties, the Manchester club has won 4 of their last 5 games, extending their unbeaten streak to 9 matches in a row.

Bruno Fernandes continues to lead the play. The Portuguese midfielder has scored 2 goals and provided 8 assists in his last 9 away matches. Additionally, Benjamin Sesko has impressed with crucial late goals, demonstrating the team’s resilience at decisive moments.

On the other hand, Everton has struggled to maintain stability at home. In their last 10 home games, David Moyes’ side has only won 3 and lost 5. Notably, they have not kept a clean sheet at home since early December. Defensive weaknesses remain the biggest issue for the Merseyside club.

Still, Everton has reasons to be confident. They defeated Manchester United 1-0 at Old Trafford in the first leg back in November. This team also completed a double over the Red Devils in the 2013-2014 season, when Moyes was managing Old Trafford. This time, they hope to replicate that achievement.

Regarding squad availability, Everton will miss Jake O’Brien due to suspension and Jack Grealish because of injury, but Seamus Coleman has returned. Manchester United will be without Mason Mount, Matthijs de Ligt, and Patrick Dorgu, though their key attacking players remain in good physical condition.

Overall, Opta forecasts a balanced contest, but recent form and fighting spirit give Manchester United a slight edge. Everton benefits from home advantage and motivation for revenge, but if their defense does not improve, they may struggle against the visitors’ in-form attack.