Darkness is enveloping Italian football

Italian football is enduring gloomy days in the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League. With the first leg of the play-offs finished, the threat of Serie A being completely unrepresented in the last 16 has become more apparent than ever.

After Napoli was eliminated in the group stage, hopes were placed on the remaining three teams: Inter Milan, Juventus, and Atalanta. However, what unfolded was a deeply disappointing scenario.

The nightmare from the first leg

Inter Milan, a team rated higher in experience and composure, unexpectedly suffered a 1-3 defeat to Bodø/Glimt. The Norwegian side played at a high tempo, pressed relentlessly, and exploited the defensive gaps of the blue and black striped team thoroughly.

Juventus shocked even more by losing 2-5 away to Galatasaray. Their defense, once a symbol of solidity, became fragile against the fast counterattacks of the Turkish opponents. The continuous exposure of defensive gaps cost Juventus dearly.

Meanwhile, Atalanta failed to cause an upset, losing 0-2 to Borussia Dortmund. The German team showed superiority in intensity and transition speed, leaving the Bergamo side with barely any chance to turn the tie around.

According to prediction models, the probability that Serie A will have no representatives in the round of 16 is as high as 48%. The elimination risks are 94% for Atalanta, 89% for Juventus, and 57% for Inter Milan. These figures serve as a strong warning signal.

The issue is no longer accidental

The simultaneous failures of the three representatives are not just temporary slips. Legendary former coach Fabio Capello pointed out three core weaknesses of current Italian teams: stamina, speed of ball handling, and consistency.

In Serie A, the pace of play is usually slow and frequently interrupted by fouls. This inadvertently creates a habit of low intensity when competing on the continental stage. In contrast, the Champions League demands speed, strength, and the ability to maintain constant pressure. A single moment of hesitation can be costly.

Additionally, the trend of requiring center-backs to initiate attacks more often has caused them to lose sharpness in one-on-one duels. When facing fast and skillful attackers, Serie A teams are easily stretched and exposed defensively.

The final chance and the long-term challenge

The second leg of the play-offs will take place on February 25 and 26, with Inter Milan, Juventus, and Atalanta all playing at home. The door to advance is not completely closed, especially for Inter who are only two goals behind. Juventus must improve their defensive system, while Atalanta needs a perfect performance to stage a comeback.

Nevertheless, regardless of the results, what has happened reflects the worrying reality of Italian football. Without reforms in youth development, raising the league's tempo, and changing the mindset towards top-level matches, Serie A will continue to fall behind in the fierce Champions League competition.