Supercomputer predicts surprising outcome for Leeds vs Man City match

The Premier League title race this season remains captivating. At one stage, Arsenal appeared to be sprinting toward the finish line, but Man City has intensified the competition to unprecedented levels.

Arsenal's recent draws against Brentford and Wolves have opened an opportunity for Guardiola's side to close the gap. However, Man City must maintain consistency if they wish to keep applying pressure. They recently achieved this with a 2-1 victory over Newcastle, thanks to a surprising brace from Nico O’Reilly.

Man City also holds an advantage by playing one day earlier than Arsenal, before the "Gunners" face Chelsea in a London derby. A win would significantly increase the pressure on their direct rival. Notably, Man City has lost only 1 of their last 14 Premier League matches when playing a day ahead of Arsenal (winning 10, drawing 3).

Manchester City is heavily favored in this match. According to Opta's supercomputer, Pep Guardiola's team is predicted to win in 56.6% of pre-match simulations. Leeds United has lost all of their last 5 meetings with Man City in the Premier League. However, prior to that, they had only lost 4 out of 16 encounters (winning 7, drawing 5).

Man City has also won their last two away visits to Elland Road and aims to secure three consecutive away victories there for the first time since the 1924–1928 period.

Leeds is currently in improved form. They began February with a 3-1 win over Nottingham Forest, followed by a 2-2 draw with Chelsea and a 1-1 draw with Aston Villa. Since early December, Leeds has drawn 8 matches, the most in the league. However, 3 of their last 4 draws ended 1-1 after they took a 1-0 lead but failed to maintain it.

Since the 2021/22 season, Leeds has kept only 7 clean sheets in 43 Premier League matches when scoring first. This season, both of their clean sheets came from late goals.

If their already shaky defense is a concern, the return of Erling Haaland only heightens the worry. The Norwegian striker scored a brace at Elland Road in December 2022 and could become the first player to score two or more goals in two consecutive away matches there in the Premier League.

Man City holds a clear advantage, as Leeds has lost all of their last 5 matches against Guardiola's team since December 2021. During this streak, Man City scored 19 goals and conceded only 4. However, in the reverse fixture in November, Man City needed a 91st-minute goal from Phil Foden to secure a 3-2 win at Etihad, a fact that certainly prevents Pep Guardiola from being overconfident.

Expected Lineup

Leeds United: Karl Darlow; Jayden Bogle, James Justin, Joe Rodon, Pascal Struijk, Sam Byram; Anton Stach, Ethan Ampadu, Ilia Gruev; Brenden Aaronson, Dominic Calvert-Lewin.

Manager: Daniel Farke

Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma; Matheus Nunes, Ruben Dias, Marc Guehi, Rayan Ait-Nouri; Rodri; Antoine Semenyo, Bernardo Silva, Nico O’Reilly; Erling Haaland, Omar Marmoush.

Manager: Pep Guardiola