Supercomputer Predicts Surprising Outcome for Manchester United vs Crystal Palace Match

Prior to hosting Crystal Palace this weekend, Opta's supercomputer assessed Manchester United as holding a significant advantage with close to a 56% probability of winning, attributed to their strong performances since Michael Carrick took charge.

Manchester United enter the match against Crystal Palace with considerable confidence, riding a 10-match unbeaten streak in the Premier League. Under manager Michael Carrick, they are also the only side yet to lose in the league since Boxing Day, having collected a total of 22 points—the best record in the division over that period.

According to Opta's analysis, the advantage clearly leans toward the home team. "The Opta supercomputer rates Manchester United as the heavily favored side in this encounter with Crystal Palace, with the host's win probability reaching 55.9% in pre-match simulations".

In 10,000 simulations, Palace had only a 21.3% chance of securing a win, while the probability of a draw stood at 22.8%.

Under Carrick, Manchester United are showing a marked improvement. He has won five of his six Premier League matches in his second stint, including victories in all of the last four home games. Opta highlights:

"Michael Carrick has won all four of his home Premier League matches while managing Manchester United across two spells; only Frank O'Farrell previously won his first five home games in charge of the club."

Manchester United's strong form is also fueled by the breakout performances of Benjamin Šeško. The Slovenian striker has scored five Premier League goals since Ruben Amorim's departure, despite mostly appearing as a substitute. He averages a goal every 46 minutes and 34 seconds—one of the most impressive scoring rates in the league in 2026. In the previous round, Šeško scored the decisive goal in a 1-0 win over Everton, propelling United back into the Top 4.

However, Crystal Palace are not an opponent to be taken lightly. Under manager Oliver Glasner, the team has won two of their last three Premier League matches and advanced to the UEFA Conference League round of 16. In their most recent game, Evann Guessand scored in the 90th minute to secure a 1-0 victory over Wolves, earning six points from two matches—equal to their total from the previous nine games.

Notably, Palace have historically performed well at Old Trafford. "Crystal Palace have won four of their last six away Premier League matches against Manchester United." They are also aiming to become the second London club to achieve three consecutive away wins against Manchester United in the Premier League era.

Nevertheless, considering overall form and squad depth, Manchester United are still rated slightly higher. The Red Devils won 2-1 at Selhurst Park in the reverse fixture and are aiming to complete a league double over Palace for the first time since the 2017-18 season.

With home advantage, consistent form, and the emergence of key players, Opta predicts Manchester United are most likely to secure all three points, thereby strengthening their position in the Top 4 as the season enters its decisive phase.