Can Milan still win the Scudetto after defeating Inter?

By defeating Inter for the second time this season thanks to the sole goal from the unexpected hero Pervis Estupinan, Milan has narrowed the gap with this rival to just 7 points and reopened the championship race. However, that remains a gap too difficult to bridge when only 10 matches remain in the season.

Speaking after the match, Milan's coach Max Allegri expressed his satisfaction with the 1-0 victory in the derby, but also affirmed that Inter remains the top contender for the Scudetto despite this result.

Inter's Position

On the other side, Inter's coach Cristian Chivu similarly stated that even if Inter had won, the overall race situation would not have changed. Both managers showed maximum respect for their opponent, and as they both acknowledged, both Inter and Milan deserve praise for a season exceeding expectations.

Inter may win the championship this season due to their substantial points advantage over Milan, but they have lost both head-to-head matches against Milan. Conversely, Milan must question why they defeated Inter twice yet still trail Inter by 7 points, demonstrating that the truth "the long road reveals the true horse" always holds. What Inter achieved in matches outside the derby was far superior to Milan's performance.

The 10-point gap created a very different position for Inter in the derby, evident in their approach to the match. They did not need to win. Chivu had more than one reason to play cautiously, not an Inter that aggressively attacked as in the first derby or most of their other matches this season. Even the players failed to show the determination expected in a match crucial both professionally and in terms of morale, especially as this could have been the most meaningful gift for the club's 119th birthday (March 9).

Things would certainly have been very different if Henrikh Mkhitaryan or Federico Dimarco had handled golden opportunities more carefully, but they dealt with them sloppily. A relaxed mentality existed, compounded by not having their strongest attacking lineup, making Inter less sharp than their opponent and defeat was the inevitable consequence.

What chance does Milan have?

After the derby, the betting odds for winning Serie A from bookmakers in Italy and Europe were adjusted, but almost nothing changed. The odds for Inter are approximately 1.1 (bet 1 win 1.1), while for Milan it's 9~10. This confirms the reality that if Inter does not win the title, it would entirely be because they threw away the achievements harvested throughout the season.

According to the new Serie A rule applied from the 2022-23 season, head-to-head results will not count as an advantage for Milan if they tie on points with Inter at the end of the season (only applies to the top two teams). Thus, with the current 7-point gap, to secure the championship, Milan must earn at least 8 more points than Inter in the final 10 matches. Meaning if Allegri's team wins all 10 matches, Inter must at least lose 2 and draw 2. It should be noted that Inter has only lost 2 and drawn 1 in their last 25 matches when the opponent was not Milan, and Milan has only won 10 consecutive Serie A matches once in history, occurring in the 1950-51 season, i.e., 75 years ago, longer than any team that has won 10 consecutive matches or more. That is an unrealistic scenario, even though people say "in football, anything can happen".

But difficulty does not mean Milan can give up. They still need to fight with maximum effort to maintain focus on the goal of securing the second-place position against the threat from Napoli, who have seen the return of their two top stars Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne after months of injury. The 4-point lead over Napoli is a significant advantage for Milan, while the 9-point lead over Como and Roma almost guarantees at least a Top 3 position for Rossoneri. They will certainly return to the Champions League, and that is the prerequisite to continue building the future, aiming for a clearer Scudetto from next season.

For Inter, losing the derby once again raises doubts about Chivu's ability to substantially elevate the team. An Inter that appears weak in big matches is not the Inter fans want to see, even if their "routine victories" will lead them to win the Scudetto this season.