An Unrealistic Scenario That Could Send Indonesia to the 2026 World Cup

Indonesia's World Cup dream has unexpectedly resurfaced following hypotheses about Iran's withdrawal, opening up a series of dramatic alternative scenarios.

The news that Iran might withdraw from the 2026 World Cup has sparked discussions among Asian football fans about potential replacements. Notably, within the Indonesian supporter community, a particular scenario has widely circulated, hoping their national team could unexpectedly appear at the planet's biggest football festival.

According to the original plan, Iran is in Group G of the 2026 World Cup alongside Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand. However, if the West Asian team does not participate, FIFA would have to adjust the structure or find another team to replace them.

From here, an "unrealistic" scenario was shared by Indonesian fans on social media. According to this hypothesis, if Iran withdraws, FIFA would need to select another team from the Asian region to replace them. Meanwhile, Iraq—the team competing for a spot in the playoff round—might be unable to continue due to the conflict situation and logistical issues in the Middle East.

In a similar case, UAE is also considered unlikely to participate in the intercontinental playoff due to similar reasons. Then, Oman—one of the teams participating in the final qualifying round of the Asian region—would be chosen to replace Iran's position at the World Cup.

If this scenario occurs, Indonesia could be promoted to replace Iraq in the intercontinental playoff. That would mean the archipelago nation's team still has a chance to compete for a spot in the 2026 World Cup.

Nevertheless, experts believe the above scenario is almost impractical. Among the official options being discussed, Indonesia is not a prioritized name.

The option considered most feasible by many experts is awarding the World Cup spot directly to Iraq—the team that wins the Asian regional playoff. Then, UAE—the team that loses to Iraq—would move to participate in the intercontinental playoff.

Another mentioned scenario is Iraq receiving the spot to replace Iran, while the intercontinental playoff would only have two teams, Bolivia and Suriname, facing each directly for the final ticket.

Additionally, FIFA could entirely maintain the current structure of Group G and only have three teams—Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand—play against each other. Some opinions even suggest FIFA could select a European team like Italy to replace Iran.

Therefore, although Indonesian fans still hold hope, the possibility of their national team unexpectedly appearing at the 2026 World Cup is assessed as very low. The 2026 World Cup will take place from June 11 to July 19 in the USA, Canada, and Mexico, and this will also be the first time the tournament features 48 teams.