Chelsea vs PSG: Seeking a comeback path for Chelsea

Turning the tide after losing by three goals in the first leg is never easy. This task becomes even more difficult for Chelsea as the team under manager Liam Rosenior is experiencing a performance crisis. However, it is not entirely impossible at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea's history of overcoming deficits after losing in the first leg of the Champions League quarter-finals is not unfamiliar. They have successfully reversed the outcome three times in the seasons 2004-05 against Barcelona, 2011-12 against Napoli, and 2022-23 against Dortmund.

Only a 7% chance of overturning the deficit against PSG

What is the common factor in those three comeback victories? Chelsea lost the away leg in each case, with defeats by a margin of up to two goals. In the 2004-05 season, Chelsea lost 1-2 to Barcelona at Camp Nou. In 2011-12, they suffered a 1-3 defeat against Napoli in Italy. Most recently, Chelsea in the 2022-23 season lost narrowly to Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park. This demonstrates that the comeback capability of the West London team should not be underestimated. However, losing by three goals presents a very different challenge. In the 2019-20 season, Chelsea lost 0-3 to Bayern Munich in the first leg of the Champions League quarter-finals at home. In the return leg, Frank Lampard's team endured another three-goal defeat at Allianz Arena. The 2-5 loss to PSG last Wednesday marks only the second time Chelsea has lost by a three-goal margin in an away first leg.

Football Rankings predicts only a 7% chance for Chelsea to advance after the defeat in Paris. So, what explains this probability? This is the 14th occasion in European competitions where PSG enters the return leg of a knockout match with a lead of three or more goals over their opponent. In 12 of those previous instances, the French representative successfully preserved their advantage to progress. The only time PSG failed to advance despite having a lead of more than three goals was in the 2016-17 season. Everyone still remembers Barcelona's magnificent "Remontada" (comeback). From losing 0-4 in Paris, Barcelona made history by crushing PSG 6-1 at home. Who led Barcelona that year? It was Luis Enrique, the current captain of PSG. The Spanish coach understands precisely what he must do to ensure his PSG does not become the victim of a Remontada from Chelsea. Rosenior's squad will approach the return leg with a mindset of having nothing left to lose in the continental arena, even though they face a formidable mountain in PSG.

Early goals are the decisive key

There is one detail supporting Chelsea ahead of tonight's return leg: They have won all four home matches in the Champions League group stage this season. Among those four victories, two were wins by a margin of three or more goals: a 5-1 victory over Ajax on October 22 last year and, a month later, a 3-0 win against Barcelona. The issue lies in Chelsea's most recent three home matches, which have been draws and losses: a 2-2 draw with Leeds, a 1-1 draw with Burnley, and most recently, a narrow defeat to Newcastle.

So, what is the crucial factor that could open the door to a magnificent comeback? Early goals. Enrique's Barcelona began their miraculous Remontada with Luis Suarez's opening goal in the 3rd minute. The inspiration from that strike helped Barcelona secure two additional goals within nearly an hour, including one from Messi. Barcelona's consecutive goals instilled fear in PSG's players. That foundation allowed Barcelona to complete the comeback with three goals late in the match. Chelsea in the 2011-12 season also initiated their unforgettable comeback against Napoli thanks to Didier Drogba's goal in the 29th minute. Therefore, the essential requirement for Chelsea tonight is to find ways to score many goals within a short timeframe. This will disrupt the psychological safety zone of PSG, who enter the return leg with a cautious approach aimed at preserving their three-goal advantage.

Notably, Chelsea's two most decisive victories in this Champions League season against Ajax and Barcelona both originated from early goals. In the match against Ajax, the opening goal came from Marc Guiu in the 18th minute. In the match against Barcelona, Chelsea received a gift from defender Jules Kounde's own goal in the 27th minute. Another Chelsea victory also featured an early goal: the win against Benfica, where midfielder Rios "gave them a gift" as early as the 18th minute. Scoring against PSG, a team that has kept a clean sheet only twice in their last seven matches across all competitions, is not entirely an impossible task.

Scoring early only guarantees half of Chelsea's comeback mission. Rosenior must avoid mistakes in defensive personnel selection. The groin injury to goalkeeper Filip Jorgensen opens an opportunity for Robert Sanchez to return to the goal in the return leg. Rosenior needs someone who can command the penalty area like Sanchez more than a goalkeeper with good footwork but prone to errors like Jorgensen. That is precisely what Chelsea requires for a daunting task that still holds a small probability of becoming reality.