Supercomputer directly predicts Premier League champion if Arsenal loses to Man City

Opta supercomputer has forecasted the Premier League champion based on possible outcomes in the clash between Man City and Arsenal.

With a six-point lead and holding control in the Premier League title race, Arsenal is not obligated to defeat Man City this weekend. However, securing three points would bring "The Gunners" very close to the throne. So, if they draw, or even lose at Etihad, how would the race situation change? Below is how each outcome affects the supercomputer's championship prediction Opta.

If Arsenal defeats Man City

Championship prediction: Arsenal 98%, Man City 2%

According to simulations from Opta, this is an extremely balanced match where Arsenal wins 35.8% and Man City wins 37.7% in 10,000 scenarios. Although victory is not mandatory, if they secure all 3 points, Arsenal will almost touch the championship.

Recent head-to-head form gives confidence to "The Gunners," as they are unbeaten in 5 consecutive matches against Man City in the Premier League. If the Etihad home team loses, they will trail Arsenal by 9 points with only 6 rounds left in the season. Then, Arsenal would only need to secure a maximum of 10 points in the remaining 5 matches to clinch the title. Their championship probability would surge to 98%, nearly impossible to overturn.

If the two teams draw

Championship prediction: Arsenal 89%, Man City 11%

Etihad has always been a challenging destination, as Man City is on a 14-match unbeaten streak at home. They also haven't lost to Arsenal there in the Premier League since 2015.

A draw result, though not an ideal target, remains an acceptable scenario for Arsenal. In that case, they maintain a 6-point gap with the opponent, while Man City, despite having one match pending, still needs Arsenal to stumble at least once more.

Arsenal's championship likelihood in this case would rise to 89%. Notably, there remains a very slim possibility of a championship playoff if the two teams continue to draw 1-1 and all metrics remain balanced, though this has never occurred in history.

If Man City defeats Arsenal

Championship prediction: Arsenal 69%, Man City 31%

If Man City secures victory, the championship race would become extremely tense. The gap between the two teams would shrink to 3 points, and Pep Guardiola's team still has one match pending.

Nevertheless, Arsenal is still rated higher with a 69% chance of winning the title. Even if they lose, they still hold an advantage because Man City needs to gain at least 3 more points in the remainder of the season to catch up. Then, goal difference could become the decisive factor.

Additionally, Arsenal's remaining schedule is considered more manageable compared to Man City, helping them maintain their advantage. Therefore, even a Man City victory would make the race more dramatic, Arsenal remains the team holding control in their hands.