Arsenal vs Newcastle: Score more goals to win the championship

Arsenal has officially lost the top spot in the Premier League standings to Man City, but this might accurately reflect the current capability of The Gunners: They are merely a team capable of competing for the title.

However, there are two changed aspects for Mikel Arteta's team before hosting Newcastle at Emirates. First, the psychological tension has been relieved; they no longer bear the pressure to maintain the number one position and become the ones "reverse pressing" on Man City. Secondly, the team is capable of playing attacking football, even under peak pressure.

A detox for Arsenal

Arteta's team truly lacked composure in the championship race against an opponent that has been crowned for many years in England's top league. From the chance to create a 12-point gap to being equalized in points and falling behind due to inferior auxiliary statistics is a serious regression.

Certainly, losing the number one position to Man City is the worst possible outcome for the London capital team. But Declan Rice's assertion that "it's not over yet" recorded shows that this collective has not collapsed, at least psychologically. Instead, it is a spirit of resistance against adversity that they themselves created.

This could play a very crucial role considering what has happened in the recent period. Arteta's team and most of the fans have essentially been living in anxiety about this scenario, and it has occurred precisely.

The pressure to hold onto the top spot has vanished, and paradoxically, it creates a sense of "lightness" compared to the tension over more than 200 days that The Gunners had to endure at the highest position on the Premier League standings.

And it also suits players who realistically lack the ability to overcome pressure at the decisive moment of the season. This has released much of the negativity accumulated too long in the London club's dressing room.

It is a mixture of being praised that this collective is much stronger than the Man United that won the Premier League and Champions League double in 2008. Even being called the best in club football history (by Piers Morgan). Alongside that is the pressure from spending over £1 billion in the market since Arteta's appointment, making winning the Premier League extremely urgent.

Until March, Arsenal lost only 3 out of 49 matches across all arenas. Since then, they have lost 4 out of their last 6 games. And unsurprisingly, the 0-2 defeat to Man City in the League Cup final increased doubts about Arteta's caliber and the players' composure.

The race begins

Arteta's Arsenal lacks championship-winning composure but has ample experience in chasing opponents. And this could help the Spanish coach loosen his caution to improve the club's playing quality.

There is a paradox that the 1-2 defeat to Man City was The Gunners' best match so far in terms of attack. The London capital team had 50 ball progression instances in the final third compared to 44 by the home side, with 30 penetrations into Donnaruma's penalty area versus 29 by Man City. Shot accuracy equaled the opponent at 33.3%, but Arsenal generated a better expected goals number of 1.62 compared to 1.36. Two shots hit the post and created 5 clear chances.

No team has had more opportunities than that when playing at Etihad in a Premier League match this season. Only Brighton had similar chances when Man City was in its worst form phase of the season. Arsenal achieved that when the opponent was at its best form. The Gunners also applied more pressure (458 times) than any other Premier League match this season.

This shows that under high pressure, The Gunners can still attack and create opportunities frequently, even without the excellent attacking player Bukayo Saka. The reason Arteta's team is still estimated to have a 73% chance of winning the championship is that their remaining 5 matches all face teams in the lower half of the standings, starting with Newcastle.

The head-to-head record is 12 wins and 3 draws in 15 Premier League matches against these teams, scoring 37 goals and conceding only 8. That produces a goal difference of +29, averaging +1.9 per match. The expected goals the team generates against lower-half teams is 2.5 per 90 minutes, compared to 1.4 against upper-half teams.

Assuming the championship is decided by goal difference. Arsenal would start this race with a heavy victory over Newcastle.