US Open Third Round: Analysis of Sinner's Advancement Prospects

The second round of the US Open has finished. Honestly, in the 1/8 section of the bracket, Sinner maintained consistent form, while the other three seeds—Shapovalov (27), Bublik (24), and Paul (14)—also performed well, all reaching the last 32. Sinner beat Australian Popyrin 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 in the second round, advancing to the third round without difficulty. His opponent managed to win three more games than the player he faced in round one.

In the third round, Sinner will face Shapovalov.Their only previous encounter was four years ago at the 2021 Australian Open. At that time, Shapovalov was the 11th seed, while Sinner was unseeded. They battled in a five-set match in the first round, with Shapovalov ultimately eliminating Sinner 3-6, 6-3, 6-2, 4-6, 6-4. Now, over four years later, the chance for revenge has arrived. Sinner is currently world number one and the top seed, whereas Shapovalov has dropped to the 27th seed. So, expect Sinner to sweep Shapovalov in straight sets.

In the fourth round, Sinner will face the winner between Bublik and Paul.

Considering Paul's hard-court strength, Bublik might struggle to overcome him, with their head-to-head record standing at 0-3 in favor of Paul. However, knowing that winning one more match would set up a showdown with Sinner, could Bublik find an extra gear? Some players thrive on challenging the "impossible," much like Kyrgios and Fognini used to get pumped facing the Big Three (especially Nadal). This year, Bublik defeated Sinner in the second round of the Queen’s Club tournament and went on to claim the title. Therefore, he may come into this match with strong ambition, aiming to beat Paul and earn another shot at Sinner.

Actually, whether Sinner faces Bublik or Paul in the fourth round, it will be a tougher challenge than the previous three rounds, because both opponents are more consistent than Shapovalov.

After the withdrawal of 5th seed Draper, the competition in the 2/8 section has become a significant advantage for 10th seed Musetti. But first, he must face his compatriot Cobolli. They have never played each other before. Musetti might have the edge on clay courts, while Cobolli may be stronger on hard courts.

Belgian player Verhaegh, who benefited from Draper’s withdrawal, will meet Munar in the third round. Unexpectedly, Munar defeated 31st seed Diallo in the second round. Regardless of who wins or loses in this group, it likely won’t affect Sinner’s quarterfinal opponent: either Musetti or Cobolli. It will probably be an internal battle between Italian players.

I’m quite eager to see Cobolli face Sinner, because Musetti’s chances against Sinner on hard courts are slimmer.

Who do you think will be Sinner’s biggest challenge before reaching the semifinals?

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