Sinner vs. Alcaraz: The Battle for World No.1 at the US Open

The 2025 US Open is the center of global tennis fans’ focus, with the emphasis not just on who will claim the title but also on the rivalry between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz for the top spot in the world rankings—if they face each other in a Grand Slam final for the third straight year, this duel will decide who takes over as world No.1.

Currently, both have reached the US Open semifinals, with the matchups clearly defined. Sinner will face world No.27 Félix Auger-Aliassime, while Alcaraz will compete against the 7th seed and 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic. For Sinner, this is a crucial match to maintain his ranking; for Alcaraz, it’s a key hurdle in his quest for the top ranking.

Looking at the points background, their competition is quite intriguing. Since first surpassing Djokovic to claim No.1 in June 2024, Sinner has held the ATP world No.1 spot for 65 consecutive weeks; Alcaraz, the youngest ever ATP world No.1, won the US Open at 19 years and 4 months old in 2022 and has been No.1 for a total of 36 weeks, with his most recent tenure ending in September 2023.

At the start of this US Open, the points gap was significant: Sinner, ranked No.1, had 11,480 points, while Alcaraz was second with 9,590 points, a difference of 1,890 points. However, due to the points “defense” rules from last year’s event, the situation is shifting—Sinner, as the defending champion, must defend 2,000 points, whereas Alcaraz, who exited unexpectedly in the second round last year, only needs to defend 50 points this year.

Before the semifinals, the live points ranking has fluctuated. Alcaraz earned 750 points through his performance, raising his total to 10,340 points and temporarily taking the live No.1 spot; Sinner, under pressure defending points, lost 1,200 points compared to before the tournament, sitting at 10,280 points, 60 points behind Alcaraz. This slim margin means every upcoming match will directly influence the ranking outcome.

The specific points calculation rules are straightforward:

If Sinner loses to Auger-Aliassime in the semifinals, Alcaraz will secure the world No.1 ranking regardless of whether he reaches the final;

If Alcaraz is defeated by Djokovic, Sinner only needs to reach the final to retain the top spot;

If both players meet in the final, Alcaraz will start with a 60-point lead, and the winner of the final will claim both the US Open trophy and the world No.1 title.

From Sinner’s withdrawal due to illness at the Cincinnati Masters and Alcaraz’s victory there, to the tight points race at this US Open, the battle for world No.1 has been building up. Now, as the semifinals approach, this contest spanning both the court and the rankings is reaching its decisive moment.

Jannik Sinner US Open Points Projection

Champion — 11,480 points

Runner-up — 10,780 points

Semifinal exit — 10,280 points

Carlos Alcaraz US Open Points Projection

Champion — 11,540 points

Runner-up — 10,840 points

Semifinal exit — 10,340 points

Guess who will be world No.1 after the US Open?

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