The race for the ATP No. 1 spot: Is Sinner’s mission impossible?
After securing a full $6 million by successfully defending his title, now it is time for Jannik Sinner to challenge the position No. 1 that Carlos Alcaraz currently holds. Yet, of course, this is no easy task.
With a 2,540-point gap in the PIF ATP Live Race to Turin rankings as of October 19, 2025, Sinner needs an almost perfect campaign in the remaining three tournaments: Vienna Open, Paris Masters, and ATP Finals. Meanwhile, Alcaraz, benefiting from a lighter schedule and steady form, holds the "VIP seat" to defend his top spot.
Currently, Alcaraz leads thanks to seven titles this season, including the French Open and US Open, with over 6,000 points. Sinner, despite winning the Australian Open and Wimbledon, has only about 4,000-4,500 points due to injury and a suspension early in the season. He must defend 1,500 points from his 2024 ATP Finals victory in Turin, while Alcaraz only defends 200 points at the ATP Finals and 100 points at the Paris Masters. To overcome this, Sinner needs to maximize the potential 3,000 points from Vienna (500), Paris (1,000), and the Finals (1,500), while Alcaraz’s task is much lighter, with only 300 points to protect.
Can Sinner (right) turn the tables against Alcaraz?
At the Vienna Open (held from October 20-26, 2025), Sinner is the top seed. He will face Daniel Altmaier in the first round and avoid early matches against players like Daniil Medvedev or Alexander Zverev. Winning Vienna provides 500 points, shrinking the gap to 840 points if Alcaraz does not compete. The Paris Masters (October 27-November 2, 2025) is a major opportunity with 1,000 points, especially since Sinner has no points to defend from last year. However, he might skip Paris to save energy for the ATP Finals (November 9-16, 2025) in Turin—his home turf. As the reigning champion, Sinner can use the support of the Italian crowd and indoor conditions that favor his improved serving. He will also hope for Alcaraz to struggle in Paris, where his indoor record is rather weak (5 wins - 4 losses).
Conversely, Alcaraz has chosen an optimal schedule, skipping Vienna and Basel to focus on the Paris Masters and ATP Finals. In Paris, he aims for at least the quarterfinals to widen the gap. Winning Paris could push the lead to 3,540 points, nearly closing the door on Sinner. At the Finals, Alcaraz only defends 200 points and holds a strong 67-7 record this season. He leads their 2025 head-to-head 4-1, providing a psychological advantage. If both reach the Finals final, it will be a "world championship" showdown to decide the No. 1 ranking.
Sinner has referred to Alcaraz as a "major motivation" for his improvement. Fans are waiting to see whether the "Italian miracle" in Turin will help Sinner reverse the situation or if Alcaraz will reinforce his reign.
P.Chi
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