The toughest draw at the Australian Open: Zverev's path to the title is fraught with obstacles

Recently, I heard an interesting yet somewhat harsh statement: Zverev might be the greatestplayer never to have won a Grand Slam title.This idea is quite reasonable when you think about it carefully.

Take a look at Zverev’s key career results up to now:

Grand Slams: runner-up thrice — at the 2020 US Open, 2024 French Open, and 2025 Australian Open.

​ATP Finals: two-time champion, winning in 2018 and 2021, and never finishing as runner-up in this event.

ATP Masters 1000: seven titles, plus five additional finals appearances resulting in runner-up finishes.

Olympic Gold Medal: championonce, winning the men’s singles gold at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics.

​ ATP 500 tournaments: six titles.

​ATP 250 tournaments: nine titles.

He has won a total of 24 titles, including 10 at high-level events!

​The only thing missing from this impressive record is a Grand Slam trophy!

With the 2026 Australian Open draw revealed, Zverev faces another setback. Regardless of Alcaraz and Sinner holding the top and bottom halves respectively — which is obvious — this draw makes his quest for the title extremely difficult, with the risk of elimination in nearly every round. Hoping for a fresh start in 2026, he instead finds himself in a “group of death” from the very first round, facing tough battles consecutively.

Zverev’s Melbourne campaign begins with a highly challenging match against the powerful-serving Canadian Diallo — hardly an ideal opponent early in a Grand Slam. The result was decent: Zverev won 6-7(1)/6-1/6-4/6-2.

In the second round, he faced Frenchman Muller, who had defeated former Masters champion Popyrin in the first round, proving to be no pushover. Last night, Zverev fought through four sets, winning 6-3/4-6/6-3/6-4.

The difficulty of his schedule continues to increase.

In the third round, his first seeded opponent will be the former Wimbledon semifinalistCameron Norrie (26), who has also won a Masters title.

In the fourth round, he could potentially face13th seed Andrey Rublev.

The good news is that 7th seed Alcaraz withdrew in the first round due to a leg cramp. However, the pressure on Zverev’s upcoming opponents remains intense. His likely quarterfinal opponent will be the winner between Medvedev (11) and Lajovic (25).

Among them, Medvedev is considered his “lifetime nemesis,” having won 13 of their last 16 encounters, holding a clear advantage. Even if Zverev manages to break through to the semifinals, Lajovic — Medvedev’s strong competitor who always battles fiercely — would be waiting. This style of play is among the toughest for Zverev to handle. Given his current physical condition, the challenge is immense.

No need to elaborate on the later rounds. If Zverev is lucky enough to reach the semifinals, he will likely be exhausted. Awaiting him would probably be a semifinal clash against Alcaraz and a final against Sinner or Djokovic — a brutal schedule requiring him to defeat three of the top players in tennis today to claim the title.

A regular at the Australian Open, this is Zverev’s 11th appearance at the tournament, where he has created many memorable moments. He debuted in 2016 but lost in the first round; from 2017 to 2019, he won seven matches at Melbourne Park; in 2020, he reached his first Australian Open semifinal but lost to Dominic Thiem, who then beat him again in the US Open final that year, denying him the title. In 2024, Zverev returned to the Australian Open semifinals, leading Medvedev by two sets but ultimately losing his advantage and missing the final. Last year, he reached the Australian Open final for the first time but was defeated in straight sets by defending champion Sinner, who was in exceptional form, leaving Zverev without the trophy.

Now, with the new season’s Australian Open draw out, Zverev faces another tough challenge. Many fans and commentators are cautious about his year-end ranking; some believe he will remain between 5th and 10th, others predict he might drop out of the top five, but generally, he is still considered stable enough to stay in the top ten. Regardless, this difficult draw undoubtedly makes the Olympic gold medalist’s dream of a Grand Slam title even more distant.

Alas! Let’s spare him ten seconds of sympathy. He is the only active player we watch despite knowing the likely disappointment...

[Look at me][Bow][Give myself a flower]

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