Why is it said that all top four seeds in the Australian Open men's singles have a chance to win when they meet in the semifinals?

For the first time since 2013, all top four seeds in the Australian Open men's singles have reached the semifinals. This weekend, Melbourne Park will inevitably witness history: Alcaraz is poised to become the youngest man to achieve a career Grand Slam; Sinner is aiming for a rare Australian Open three-peat; Zverev is chasing his maiden Grand Slam title; and Djokovic continues his quest for an unprecedented 25th Grand Slam. Here are the reasons why each of these four semifinalists could claim the trophy:

Alcaraz (No. 1 Seed)

Alcaraz will face Zverev in the Australian Open semifinals. Over the past 18 months, Alcaraz has been unstoppable in men's tennis, not only frequently winning Grand Slam titles but also reclaiming the world No. 1 ranking. At this Australian Open, he has demonstrated this dominance fully over 11 days at Melbourne Park.

This Spaniard has advanced to the semifinals almost effortlessly, and surprisingly, this is his first time reaching the Australian Open semifinals in his career. He is currently undefeated in 15 sets, and frankly, there is little sign of him dropping any sets. In critical moments, Alcaraz remains exceptionally composed, boasting a 76% success rate on serve at 30-30 or deuce, the highest in the tournament.

Perhaps what unsettles opponents the most is that Alcaraz seems to have addressed his only previous weakness — his serve. Inspired by Djokovic, he now emphasizes precision over power. "He’s not the fastest server, but extremely precise. You can hardly read his serve; the ball skims the lines and lands softly as if ‘falling asleep.’ Sometimes precision matters more than speed."

At this Australian Open, Alcaraz’s first-serve success rate has reached 66%, a 2% increase from last year; his second-serve points won rate also rose from 56% to 60%. These seemingly small improvements, combined with his already near-unbeatable form, make the challenges from Sinner, Zverev, and Djokovic even tougher.

If he lifts the trophy on Sunday night, Alcaraz will become the youngest male player in history to complete the career Grand Slam. Never underestimate his hunger to rewrite records.

Sinner (No. 2 Seed)

Sinner reaching the final on Sunday seems almost inevitable. Not just because he faces 38-year-old Djokovic in the semifinals, but because he has grown accustomed to standing on the Grand Slam’s ultimate stage. Sinner has reached five consecutive Grand Slam finals, winning three titles; in his last four hard-court Grand Slam finals, he has triumphed three times, including the last two Australian Opens. On hard courts, he has won 32 of 33 matches since losing to finalist Tsitsipas in Melbourne in 2023.

Except for a brief scare in the third round, Sinner’s path to the semifinals has been nearly flawless. His dominant quarterfinal win over No. 8 seed Shelton was stunning and sent a clear message to the other three contenders: beating him requires an exceptional performance.

Sinner’s serve is highly efficient, his strokes clean and precise, with very few unforced errors, constantly pushing opponents out of their comfort zones. "Every day, every match, we don’t underestimate any opponent," Sinner said after defeating Shelton. "I’m focusing on the present. Making the semifinals again in Australia makes me very happy. This place is very special to me."

Facing Djokovic in the semifinals, Sinner will enter as the clear favorite — he has beaten the Serbian legend five times in a row, winning the last three matches without dropping a set. If he advances, he will face either Alcaraz or Zverev in the final, both of whom he defeated when winning the ATP Finals last November.

Zverev (No. 3 Seed)

Zverev has seemed close to winning his first Grand Slam title for many years. Could this year, especially this Australian Open, finally be his breakthrough? The world No. 3 is no stranger to competing deep into the second week of Grand Slams. On Friday, he reached his 10th Grand Slam semifinal, stepping onto Rod Laver Arena with neither unfamiliarity nor nerves. He has previously made three Grand Slam finals, including last year’s Australian Open.

In the past two weeks, Zverev’s form has steadily improved, showing the maturity expected of a potential champion. He plays with great discipline, minimizing unforced errors, which was especially evident in his quarterfinal victory over rising star Lenny Tran. Of course, his success still largely depends on his powerful serve. So far in five matches, Zverev has fired 80 aces with only six double faults, holding serve 92% of the time, and winning 77% of points on his first serve.

“I feel healthy and pain-free, which hasn’t happened for a long time,” Zverev said after the match. “I think I’m playing well. Of course, I’m still chasing that Grand Slam trophy, but I also want to enjoy the game.”

The semifinals bring both good and bad news for Zverev. The bad news: he faces world No. 1 Alcaraz. The good news: he is one of the players with the best head-to-head record against Alcaraz on tour. They have met 12 times, each winning six matches, and split 1-1 in the past 18 months. This gives Zverev confidence to cause an upset and reach the Australian Open final for the second consecutive year.

Djokovic (No. 4 Seed)

In tennis history, no one understands how to win Grand Slam titles better than Djokovic. Likewise, no one has been more successful at the Australian Open. This ten-time champion has lost only six matches at Melbourne Park over the past 16 years, with an incredible 20-2 record in semifinals and finals. Although he has not won a Grand Slam since 2023 and is now 38, whenever he appears in the draw, he remains a formidable contender. When only two matches stand between him and the title, no one dares to count him out.

Of course, Djokovic has also had some luck in this tournament. In the first three rounds, he faced no opponents ranked inside the top 70; in the fourth round, Menšík retired due to an abdominal injury, giving Djokovic a walkover; and in Wednesday’s quarterfinal, Djokovic was down 0-2 against Italian Musetti but advanced when Musetti withdrew due to injury, marking Djokovic’s 13th Australian Open semifinal appearance.

This might be the bit of luck he needs to pursue his 25th Grand Slam crown — if successful, he will break the record shared with Margaret Court and become the sole leader in all-time singles Grand Slam titles.

“I know that as long as I’m healthy and can put all the pieces together on a given day, I believe I can beat anyone,” Djokovic said before the match. “My priority is to take care of my body, build momentum, and avoid wasting unnecessary energy. Last year, during the late stages of Grand Slams, I felt I lacked some ‘fuel’ in my legs against these young players.”

Physically, Djokovic will be the freshest among the four semifinalists — he has spent only 9 hours and 7 minutes on court in total, while Alcaraz, Sinner, and Zverev have all played over 11 hours.

Moreover, in some ways, Djokovic faces the least pressure. The general consensus is that Sinner is the clear favorite in their semifinal and expected to win relatively easily. But in Australia, there is no such thing as an “easy win over Djokovic.” Never underestimate this underestimated man.(Source: Tennis Home, Author: Spark)