Can Sinner and Alcaraz go further than the Big Three in tennis?

During the Big Three era, the early stage was marked by the Federer-Nadal rivalry, followed by the Djokovic-Nadal phase. Still, there were challengers. Murray claimed three Grand Slam titles and frequently reached the Australian Open finals. Wawrinka was basically a Grand Slam “thorn” for Djokovic. Despite Djokovic’s 21–6 overall lead against Wawrinka, in Grand Slam encounters, the record stands at 5–4. Additionally, Del Potro and Cilic also contested Grand Slam finals against the Big Three.

In the past two years, Sinner and Alcaraz have claimed all eight Grand Slam titles! Since Djokovic achieved the milestone of 24 Grand Slam wins, age and motivation have become obstacles in his pursuit of more titles. However, this year Djokovic ended his five-match losing streak against Sinner at the Australian Open, which was quite impressive. This indirectly confirms Tony’s comment that Alcaraz still has a significant gap compared to Nadal at his peak.

In front of the Sinner-Alcaraz duo, other players almost seem like lambs. Such dominance in tennis, if it continues for long, can become monotonous.

However, no players have emerged in the past two years to seriously challenge the Sinner-Alcaraz duo. Draper, Rune, and Fils showed promise but have been frequently hampered by injuries. Draper especially seems to need “periodic major repairs.” Younger rising stars like Mensek and Fonseca have been inconsistent and haven’t yet challenged Sinner or Alcaraz. At this year’s Australian Open, Lener Tchien performed well, reaching the Grand Slam quarterfinals for the first time but fell to Zverev. The American Spizziri, who took a set off Sinner at the Australian Open, might be worth watching.

Currently, the only player able to challenge Sinner and Alcaraz is Djokovic! In the Australian Open semifinals, Djokovic battled through five sets to block Sinner from reaching the final. Last year at the Australian Open, Djokovic stopped Alcaraz from advancing to the semifinals in the quarterfinals. Others like Zverev, Medvedev, and Draper can only spar with Sinner and Alcaraz from the sidelines for now. This year at the Australian Open semifinals, Zverev lost again to Alcaraz, letting a great chance slip away. Notably, Medvedev was defeated by Lener Tchien again, exiting in the fourth round. In his own words, he hasn’t even had chances to face Sinner or Alcaraz in the past two years.

At present, most players in the TOP 50 are familiar faces. Counting them one by one, only Djokovic, when in good physical condition, has a chance to beat Sinner or Alcaraz. Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic dominated tennis for 20 years; can Sinner and Alcaraz rule even longer?

Or will their achievements surpass those of the Big Three? Theoretically, if starting from 2024, no “third player” emerges within five years, their accomplishments should exceed those of the Big Three. Sharing four Grand Slam titles between two players yearly yields a bigger share than among three. The same applies to Masters and Finals titles.

As for the many historical records held by the Big Three in tennis, it remains to be seen how many more they can unlock.

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