Can Medvedev defeat the top two consecutively to win the title after ending Alcaraz's 16-match winning streak?

This morning Beijing time, Medvedev spent 1 hour and 37 minutes in the Indian Wells semifinals, defeating world number one Alcaraz 6-3 7-6(3), ending the latter's 16-match winning streak this year and also ending his own four consecutive losses against the opponent since the 2023 ATP Finals.

For Medvedev, this marks his eighth victory over a reigning world number one and his first such win in 2024 (five wins over then-world number one Djokovic, two over then-world number one Alcaraz, and one over then-world number one Sinner). Since the Dubai tournament this year, Medvedev has achieved a nine-match winning streak and a 18-set winning streak. In the ATP win count ranking for this season, Medvedev leads with 18 victories.

Next, I will briefly review the key moments and crucial points of this match.

In the pre-match coin toss, Alcaraz, who guessed correctly, chose to receive serve, which surprised me somewhat. After the match started, Alcaraz's form was not particularly good; the typically free-spirited player made multiple errors, including some wild forehand mistakes. On the other hand, Medvedev continued his hot streak since winning Dubai, maintaining high standards in both serve and offense. He broke serve in Alcaraz's second service game, establishing a 3-1 lead.

The subsequent proceedings were relatively uneventful, with neither player giving up break points. Medvedev secured a set point with an Ace in the ninth game, followed by an outside serve winner, winning the first set 6-3.

The first four games of the second set followed a pattern opposite to the first set. Alcaraz, serving first, broke Medvedev's serve in his second service game, leading 3-1. In the fifth game, Medvedev earned a break point with a beautiful return, and Alcaraz made a backhand error in the next point, allowing Medvedev to break back, leveling the game score to 3-3.

After that, Alcaraz held serve smoothly, taking a 4-3 lead. In the eighth game, Alcaraz secured one break point, but Medvedev saved it with a backhand crosscourt winner, then won two consecutive points to narrowly hold serve, bringing the game score to 4-4.

In the ninth game, Alcaraz reached a 40-15 lead. After Medvedev won two points to level it, Alcaraz won two more points to hold serve, advancing the game score to a 5-4 lead.

The tenth game of the second set was a must-hold service game for Medvedev. Alcaraz raised his level, first hitting a forehand down-the-line winner, then a volley winner, but both break points (which were also set points) were successfully saved by Medvedev. Subsequently, the players exchanged points, pushing the game score to 6-6 and entering a tiebreak.

In the second-set tiebreak, Medvedev relied on his powerful backhand to break Alcaraz's two service points consecutively, achieving a 4-1 lead. After winning one more point, Medvedev secured a 6-1 lead with a serve winner, thus earning five consecutive match points. Afterwards, Alcaraz saved two service points, rescuing two match points and advancing the tiebreak score to 3-6. Medvedev then converted the third match point with an inside Ace, winning the second-set tiebreak 7-3 and ultimately defeating Alcaraz with a 2-0 overall score.

This is Medvedev's first victory over Alcaraz since the 2023 US Open, having lost four consecutive matches to him previously. Simultaneously, this marks Medvedev's first win over a reigning world number one since defeating then-world number one Sinner at Wimbledon 2024.

In the post-match interview, Medvedev said: "Honestly, (the feeling of victory) is very good. Against someone like Carlos, you play many times and lose many times. He is an incredible player with excellent shots, defense, offense, serve, return—everything is top-notch—so you have to perform at your best, and I indeed did that. I served very well; in previous matches I saved one or two set points, one or two break points, so I tried to persist in the second set, and I played really well. I'm very happy to defeat such a strong opponent."

Regarding his next final opponent, Medvedev stated he will try his utmost to end his three consecutive losses against Sinner, who defeated Zverev 6-2 6-4 in the earlier semifinal.

For Medvedev, to win the Indian Wells title, he must consecutively defeat the top two players, namely Alcaraz and Sinner, considered the most challenging task in current men's tennis.

"Whenever you participate in a tournament where both are present, if you want to win the championship, you likely have to defeat both of them, but that's fine; it's the rule of tennis nowadays. If I can maintain my level throughout the tournament, or even improve, I will have a chance, so I will strive to achieve that," Medvedev said.

Having reached the final, Medvedev will move to the tenth position in next week's world rankings, marking his 280th week in the world top ten. If he wins the Indian Wells title, Medvedev will rise to world number nine; he previously held the world number one position for 16 consecutive weeks in 2022.(Source: Tennis Home Author: Yun Juan Yun Shu)