Expert makes surprising prediction about Djokovic's chances of winning Roland Garros

Last season at Roland Garros, Novak Djokovic advanced to the semifinals before losing to Jannik Sinner.

Carlos Alcaraz's absence from Roland Garros 2026 is causing significant shifts in the landscape of men's tennis, particularly regarding Novak Djokovic's ambition to capture his 25th Grand Slam title.

The Serbian player has yet to confirm whether he will participate in this year's clay court season, but the news of Alcaraz—the reigning champion for two consecutive years—withdrawing due to a wrist injury opens up a considerable opportunity for competitors. In the previous season, Djokovic halted his run at the Roland Garros semifinals after a defeat to Jannik Sinner, raising doubts about his competitiveness in five-set matches on clay surfaces.

According to former player Greg Rusedski, currently coaching Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Carlitos' absence has made the race in Paris "more manageable" for the rest. Previously, players almost had to consider scenarios of defeating both Sinner and Alcaraz consecutively to claim the title. Now, that pressure has somewhat eased.

"The situation has changed. With Alcaraz withdrawing, many players will feel they have a real chance. You no longer have to overcome the two strongest opponents consecutively.", Rusedski analyzed. He also believes Djokovic, if physically fit, could see this as an opportune moment to create a surprise.

Nevertheless, the name considered to benefit most is Sinner. The world number one is in exceptional form following an impressive streak of Masters 1000 titles and is viewed as the top contender for this year's Roland Garros championship. Without Alcaraz— who defeated him in last year's final, Sinner faces a major opportunity to complete his career Grand Slam collection.

However, this also brings considerable pressure. When expectations are concentrated on one name, any stumble could become a major shock. In that context, seasoned players like Djokovic or Alexander Zverev could fully capitalize on the opportunity.